Jake, thats spot on. the last reserve upgrade was directly as a result of that relationship with Arrow. The above hypothetical chart shows how BOW can milk that early work from Arrow.
BOW has engaged in data sharing arranegments for both the Norwich and Blackwater areas. For Blackwater though, I seem to remember it was more from a coring and log perspective with the coal miner to identify physically where the resource was rather than relying just on seismic. Very different to the Arrow hook up which actually gives the some value through actual reserves across the whole permit leveraged to a pilot next door.
This particluar area has been identified as a resource many many years ago.
The above plot shows just how much resource potential is in just <40% of the tenement.It wouldnt take much to flip that contingent resource into reserves, and obviously Shell are happy with that risk. Currnelty $500m+ happy.
Is $500m+ a gamble? I mean, at what point does spending half a billion dollars become too risky? If you are in for that much, you are in for it ALL.
Shell want this.The only upside limit I could think of was competing supply, which in this case is substantial from AGL which has a very sizeable 2P reserve position.
AGL are already getting into bed with BG, how does this make Shell feel?
Right now, I feel BOW are in a very strong negotiating position. Shell are just swiping at the low hanging fruit. To think they wont also hunt for AGLs reserves would be naive I think. AGLS back in rights of 50% are substantial, and growing year by year. It might sound ridiculous, but some cohesion between AGL and BOW could actually serve them both very well in extracting the best value from their resource collectively.
SF
BOW Price at posting:
$1.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
