gilbert/mclean drilling, page-16

In making my assessment I was looking at the probability of all 5 Cooper wells being dusters. This is the same problem (assuming that the probabilties are accurate and independent - the first doubtful and the second being about right) and throwing a dice 5 times and not coming up with a six on any of the 5 throws. This multiple (i.e average case (75% probability of a duster on any one well) gives .75x.75x.75x.75x.75= 24% of all 5 being dusters) by subtracting this from 100% (i.e 76%) gives the probability of at least one being successful - sorry for my mental arithmetic (from 90% quoted in previous post). Of course within the this 76% probability their is a real chance of more than one well containing oil (or gas). On top of this we have the probability of Gilbert (about 8% from memory) and Maclean (anout 12% from memory) and the probability of not finding oil (or gas over all prospects) is 19.2% (i.e probability of finding oil/gas in at least one of the prospects is 81%) - not bad odds for an explorer. On top of this EBR has money in the bank, Cultana, a graphite mine (worth about $1.5m) and discovered gas as a partner on the Moby prospect already. To me a much safer bet than others (such as GOP).

Zog