That is not the question. The probability of the last is certainly the same, but it is the chance of getting a tail (ie. oil) out of one of the series is higher than the individual probability. Or no oil is less, if you like it to put it that way.
The problem I have is whether the 20-30% of striking oil in an individual hole is a useful number to do the calculations.
R
gilbert/mclean drilling, page-13
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