Ok so what’s going on with the share price.
Why has been doing what many cant explain.
To where could it now head and why.
I have studied my butt off to understand it.
I have had to cover everything. Every element raised to assess its validity for each concern.
I was rereading all my reports and noting how not only in HC. But in reports (especially media) youll always get two opinions on everything. Then it hit me. The only thing that matters isn’t what individuals think or even what I think. Its what the market thinks on a whole. So I need to look at what the market thinks to see how it assesses the situation now.
The only way one can do that is via share price history charts.
The price of the share always reflects what the market collectively thinks and all of these issues raised or doubted now have pretty much all been present or presented for some years.
So the share price charts are a perfect correlation to study when comparatively observed.
This will be a lengthy thesis because theres just so many factors to consider and therefore research. But at least you will get a full picture on GGG right now. I apologise for its length.
Many reasons raised seem to be fearfully overlooking what we already know. When in fear we tend to doubt, or forget what we know, or question it all over again. So lets look at what it is we do know and what some people think it could be as cause.
Some people think the reason could be;
Commodity PricesHere’s the price performance of Nd over recent times.
Heres the price performance of GGG over the same timeframe
Nd price doubled from 38 to 64 and back to 38 from June17 to Jan 18.
What did GGGs share price do over this timeframe in black?
Absolutely nothing.
It stayed completely flat over this boom period, as shown. That’s because I feel the market isn’t valuing the lode. As it’s worth nothing if you cant mine it.
So it doesn’t look like REE prices are offering any influence at all or wed clearly see share price mimic the commodity price.
Lets look at what GGG share price has done historically.Feb 17 it boomed to 20 cents.Looking at Nd prices it was even lower here at this timeframe being at 31. So its definitely not about REE pricing again as we can see. As the market totally overlooked REE pricing when faced with the news that Shenghe had joined the ranks.
UraniumUranium was still very low at near $20 at this same timeframe. Much lower than now at $28.50. No luck there on either commodity price having an effect on price. The lodes current value isn’t being priced in to the share price at all.
So GGG had both resources at even lower prices then what they are currently. Yet it had an even higher 20 cent share price.
Why?
Why is the share price historically the highest when its lode is at the lowest capital net worth its ever been?
Well… supply and demand
Shenghe first started their interest in GGG in late 2016. Taking up a full 12% allocation. People started thinking “Well if Shenghes in then they know something and this one looks like its going to go ahead” and in they jumped to buy.
Up sailed the share price from 6 to 20 cents.So we can see the true effect here on what happens to this share price when people want to buy and no one wants to sell. Keep this in mind for later if these fundamentals were reversed. Selling will push it down too right? Given demand GGG has grown 350%. Given recent selling pressure it has dropped back down to these former lows and the ridiculous thing is how much more secure and advanced the project is since this time. All of which has been given no additional pricing at all.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the market thinks REE or Uranium price is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Is it Book Value?It was 10 cents when the share price went to 20 cents. It was 8 cents when the share price settled at 10 cents. We are just under 7 cents in BV now yet the share price is roughly 5.5 cents now.
Definitely cant be book value or the share price would be 9 cents plus minimum based on how the market has treated the share for years.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the market thinks Book Value is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Ok so was it the approvals issues?We are far more advanced now many years later then when at 20 cents or the 10 cents platform for a very long time, with much more in the approvals favour today. Obviously it cant be about approvals. I will add more later on this one.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the market thinks approvals is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Is it political concerns?The entire time over this chart timeframe IA had a hugely more influential ability in government via a coalition with Siumut or otherwise with their anti uranium sentiment. IA could have been a pain on uranium. Only now this influence has slipped from their grasp and with the Dems and Siumut together The political situation has never been more supportive of the go ahead. As with a 19/31 seat in governemt offering full support for the go ahead for the mine (subject to EIA approval). As we have a lear majority.
Things haven’t ever looked this good.
Also remember Party Nag was pro this project due to being strong advocates to invite Chinese into the country (hence why they split the coalition with Siumut over the not allowing of the Chinese into the airport deal over the Danes whom they want to move away from.)
So even if they are in opposition. Their wish to disallow Chinese business here. Is very questionable to assume.
Even if they did reject it theres still 19/31 for the go ahead and that’s all that matters for GGG.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the market thinks political uncertainccy is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Is it concerns over uranium?IA out of power deters that fact considerably. Keep in mind IA once agreed that if environmental merit could be shown they would consider supporting Kvanefejld. So they aren’t totally opposed. They just need to be satisfied. Is this really a full opposition (without the power to do anything anyway)?
Will a 50 strong Anti Uranium group out of some 50,000 strong populous really stop a government that’s overturned two uranium referendums in their faces (that means the public requested to vote publically on whether uranium mining should occur or not and the government replied “Nope. No vote will happen. Its all going ahead regardless”. )Now that’s a stern answer showing they really don’t care for what the public thinks. The government are pressing forth with this intention regardless.
Do you think a government like that isn’t still going to over look such objections or protests equally now if a protest group whimpers and questions given the SIA? You can bet your bottom dollar they expect it already and heard from the anti urani group again and again and they will expect it when the SIA arrives.
Siumut have clearly stated that the project is all subject to the EIA approval and SIA being satisfied. That includes the IBA and doesn’t mean its soley an opinion poll. The SIA is a structural plan to demonstrate economical advantage to the vicinity and country as well as viewpoint elements. Keep that in mind too because its actually the bigger interest for the country and government over objection groups. If Siumut overturned a referendum on uranium, twice. Given international authority and EIA clearances. That’s clearly all they will need to press forth safely regardless of any of the objection groups ill researched fears
The leader of the Anti Uranium group is drawn and tired. He broke down and publically declared he’d given up 6 months ago. Besides was this anti uranium protest threat any less at 20 cents? Any less during the lift of the uranium ban? During the referendum appeals? Any less during previous rallies? Any less at 10 cents? Far from it. Yet we are at 5.5cents now? A fraction of the price when all the rest was faced.
So its not uranium scare mongering at work here on the share price at all.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the market thinks uranium concern is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.But what about the locality objecting?Greenland is over the topic of uranium and the local township very keen for money. They where 50/50 to theproject according to a recent video documentary (“The community is divided in half but I suspect it will go ahead anyway” was a quote from the most influential member of the township (Previous Minister of Minerals)).
The town Mayor since this time is (re-elected Siumut) is now fully in favour and given the EIA ticks andExtensive further works plus FINALLY an SIA and public consult to offer a public understanding that they have never had prior (half the twon don’t even have internet still to look into the goings on). When they see GGG aren’t mining like in the 60s anymore with uranium oxide in sacks on their backs they later sew into cloths and die from. Will they turn against the operation or see its sense and support it more, given these assurances, and re-education?
Will they want to go for the money factor to save their dying township populous?
They all know their town population is dying fast and unemployment is high.
1/4 of last years graduates killed themselves due to depressive employment environments and the rest predominantly moved to the cities. Is this not a change in sentiment any less than what its ever been and the share price has been much higher than it is now for a very long time.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the townships current concern is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Maybe theres some secret problem with the EIA we all don’t know about?I cant find anything.
We know the Danish Authority had a press leak to the media stating there has been no major issue with the English EIA received beyond brushing up a few things.
Sure you cant trust the press but now we read the GGGs releases and the company reports the same.
Basically a few things need brushing up.
So at least they both confirm each other in what the problems are.We know the Greenland Government has processed the application in stages these past few years and the last 10% was outstanding and due for submission.
How wrong can GGG logically really get a well guided by the department final 10% submission do you think?Especially when they had over a half a dozen top businesses in the field working upon it.
People talk like the EIA has all just been submitted and its all totally new. Because the media voices it as if it was. But its not. Its been approved in stages. It only has 10% left to be approved. Don’t overlook that fact as it takes away 90% of your worry.
Then of that 10% to be cleared we know the bulk has been ok’d since recent submission.
Amendments were requested and now submitted and minor referencingand translations of the rewritten parts are due.
All stated in announcements.
Yet the market are acting like the delay is due to a likely total failure in full?
We know the amendments are in some of the best hands (employed companies to handle such matters) and many of the items are already addressed. Is this really such a concern or is it a case of what we are being told being totally overlooked and considered a possibility for the share price?
I also contacted management last week so to know exactly whats going on as have others here.
I was told there is no other cause for alarm. These are simple items simply being polished up then translated in addition and referenced before resubmission. It has been a lengthy delay. But that’s all it has been and no other fundamental concern exists.Id much prefer they took their time and do all the amendements right then resubmit and have it handed back a few times to be resubmitted again and again. As the market would just get even sorer then.
Try remember exactly what it says in the last Quarterly before falling for the fear over this one.
Updated environmental and social impact assessments (EIA, SIA) were lodged with the Greenland Government in Q3, with content reviews then commencing. Meetings have since taken place in both Greenland and Denmark as part of the review process, along with considerable correspondence. SIA reviews were received during Q4, with only minor amendments required. These have been completed, and the SIA is back with the Greenland Government. Translations of the document have been completed and are undergoing final checks. For the EIA, additional data to supplement waste rock (mostly basalt) studies, along with updated fjord modelling and air-quality modelling studies have been completed and sent through to Greenland’s Environmental Agency for Mineral Resource Activities (EAMRA). The outcomes were consistent with prior work demonstrating minimal impact and further supporting the findings of the EIA. 5 Company personnel have held a number of meetings with the EAMRA and their advisors through Q4 to with the aim of finalising outstanding items that fall within the scope of the EIA. Referencing and document formatting are currently being updated, and translations have been completed and currently being checked.Its really very clear there is no immediate cause for alarm isn’t it? Sure any company will say everything is going well. But this statement isnt that general and rather quite specific, of which it states, the bulk is done.
There doesnt appear any sound current evidence to suggest the application issues is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Have Shenghe changed their tune?After a huge investment partnering with CNNC theres far more interest in this resource then theres ever been from Shenghe and the MOU shows that’s true.They are clearly planning ahead so to off take oxide during the start up phase.Great idea as it allows much earlier cash flow (not much of a plant is needed to simply start digging it up)
Financiers would be happier too with immediate repayment rather than delayed by a year or so and large more expensive facilities being built upfront absent cashflow.
This was a very smart move by both companies the market hasn’t factored into the share price at all.
There doesnt appear any sound current evidence to suggest the Shenghes operations is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.Is it concern that the government isn’t allowing the operation to continue due to “strategic purposes"?The Denmark Ministry of Defence have already openly stated it has no concern with commercial ventures. Its simply the Cinese proposals of a nature where its involved in infrastructure deals eg airports and ports. That could allow military presence.
There doesnt appear any sound historial evidence to suggest the Danish/US concern is the factor for the cause for the current dropping share price.
So whats going on to the share price??Remember when Shenghe got in everyone saw the potential and jumped in.
What potential has changed?
Nothing.
In fact its far more in potential now given many releases we have seen since.
So looking at all these factors. If this share can go to 20 cents without an approval and settle at 10 cents. What will it do with approval ever closer and Shenghe even keener?
Food for thought.
Why has it drifted down so much since this time?
Well first reality set in that the approval was a long way away and the market settled back to around 10 cents for a long period from its 20 cent high.
However 20 cents is a good gauge on what to expet when approvals are closer.
As you can see on the above chart. It stayed in this range till around the end of Jan. It looked like a good base to move up from given positive news of which we got so far. In fact although there were some concerning periods everything has achieved above expectation. Yet the share price dropped.
In fact at the start of March it was still flirting with 9.6 cents a figure it had been crossing for the entire settling period around 10 cents.However from March 2018. We see the drop begin.
So we need to look back and see what has started in March 2018 and continued until today and analyse every step of the way where it has been steep in drop and bounced to ensure we find a pattern we can safely conclude is the ill effect.Now while looking for a pattern… keep in mind the age old rule
Supply and demand.
No matter what we are looking for it MUST influence these variables eventually to drop or raise the share price.
Currently on the demand side you have value investors. They can see this company has more cash in the bank per share than the current share price. They can see all variables and news flow are far better than what they have ever been then in all this time where the share price was far higher. They are there and waiting. As Ill show below examples of it. But they are spooked uninformed and guessing at a bottom. As besides this logic the share price seems to always drop.
On the supply side. Here we have the dumpers. They are the damage. If you have been watching the boards for months you’d note a good million or two form up as buyers pile up seeking value buys if a seller wishes to take it. Someone keeps dumping down and breaking through floors again and again with large orders.
Suddenly when theres large drops of a million or so. Amounts well beyond a small time investor. You cause a painic and a domino effect inn sells.
However we have a pattern forming that we have seen only twice over the year. Theres been a slide.
A return to the previous value (10 cents) and then a slide again until now.
So whos selling/dumping and causing all this damage?
I’ve been doing some indexed tracking of a tracking index that’s been tracking an index!
Basically I’ve been researching this for 11 months now and I have come up with the following.
I believe I’ve found our culprit for the suppressed share price for this past year (defying all our logic) and at the same time now turned something quite depressive into something quite exciting looking forward.
It’s not bots or day traders or delayed EIAs or even shorts.
Global X announced they wanted to reduce their holdings back in March last year when the SP was up just under 10 cents.
BOOMSee that date?
March 2018.
The beginning of the charts slide noted above. To the exact month.
With no other “variables” getting worse and in fact all improving.
This is the only thing, that to the month, connects with the start of the share price slide
Perhaps that’s just a fluke? We will see. Ill go on…
They started selling and the SP just kept dropping over the months down to a low of 7 cents which was roughly a month after their big disposal of some 80 mill to another joint fund that many would remember.
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/GGG/01988626.pdf
So ALL this time of the drop. A large amount of shares were being dropped.. No turn around was seen the entire time at all. Just dropping given the sell off.
Supply versus demand.
Expecting the market to mop up 9% of all holdings is a large demand. It spooks too many seeing large dump patterns and traders get jittery adding to the down swing. Most day traders wont even research or think this through. They just get jittery and sell when GlobalX aka “a fund” is doing the same So in June GlobbalX were finally out. They held at that time the proportion to be in line with Solactives Index (1.8% of portfolio value@roughly 15mill) and in doing so killed the sp from 10 to, at close, 7 cents on their final load dumped.
This of course removed a hell of a lot of potential buyers over the period as they snapped up the dumping. Less buyers. More sells. Share price nightmare as you can see on the attached graph.
Stage 1 Global X Sell Down Result On Share Price
Note the circles are the start and the end dates of the dumping activity.
You can clearly see the influence.
Its 30% of the share price gone.
I am actually surprised we had this many buyers coming in to take on so many shares over this period. But we did.People were as to a loss. HC was a constant post of worry much like what it is now with no one understanding quite the full impact on what an institutional sell down does. Especially when people keep bringing it up in the room scaring off all buyers and the sellers into getting out as an institution gets selling. As they think “someone else” knows better about whats going on and if anyone, an institution must.
So Global x fell to roughly 15 million shares at this point being 1.8% of its portfolio mimicking Solactive.
Then they stopped selling.Immediately to the day you can see from the price charts in the second circle. The share price did a complete back flip from the last batch of sell off in June and headed straight back up again on an immediate and strong rebound now totally absent this selling pressure.
I would expect that also some smart investors were aware of the bottom and that GlobalX was now out of selling (as it reached its 1.8% mimic total) and had been holding off to buy.
Hence the solid immediate hike as they piled in you can see. Note this was the only jump this entire time of the sell off.
Again this shows the response of the market when sell downs are done. Its basically saying “thank god that’s over lets go back to what its worth” and so over the next 5 months where there was no fund dumping. What happened absent that selling supply?
Stage 2 GlobalX Sell Down Ceased Result on Share Price
From this date of last sale in June it fully recovered over the next 5 months up to a peak of 10.5cents (a politically assured declaration spike went from 9.6 to 10.5) in Oct/November. Everyone was happy again. SP a bit more reasonable. 40%gains. Why wouldn’t you be. The graph looks realatively flat but the gains are great for 5 months at 40%.
This was suggestive of where the share price would finally want to be absent any institutional sell down. We were back at 10 cents like we had been before and with far better advancement things were looking up to head much further.
What else happened over this time the upswing could have been from? Nothing. In fact we had political uncertainty in our faces again. Youd expect 5.5 cents then wouldn’t you more than now! But it didn’t go anywhere but up at 9 cents. Because what mattered was the sell down wasn’t there anymore. The sell down over powered the potential news that would stop the project going ahead. Odd isnt it.
So the supply of sells had stopped and nothing else mattered. Not even bad news. Its all supply and demand it seems.
Solactive Steps In.....
However the party was short lived. Solactive then decided that GGG was no longer fit for its index. Not because the share was unsound or any other concern. Simply because, I was first told, the resource is now REE focussed and not Uranium which is the primary requirement of its fund (from lead brokers as Solactive wouldn’t talk). They said it has been close to the bone for some time for GGG to be removed.
Now it’s also apparently because it didn’t fit the freeform holding requirements (explained later). Both of these facts, regardless of which has stronger priority. Both are not based upon fundamentals of the operation at all. They are policy based and overlooking all value the share may have. This is bad news in the sense of the sell down. But perfect news for a rebound because the sell down isn’t due to any loss of actual fundamental or concern.
So when the sell down is over. Absent any concern. We can expect it to go back to what it was when all this was much the same and so it did as we can see to the 10 cent range again.So it only offers a perfect buying opportunity as the sell down has no rationale (not that spooked sellers knew that) with reasonable being 10 cents as determined quite consistently
Stage 3 Solactive Affiliate Sell Down Result on Share Price
So from its peaks from 10cents plus. Between Oct 28th to Jan 28th 2019 Solactive then removed GGG from their index. Any like tracking affiliates you can be assured would have been informed of this intention equally or anyone else who subscribed to the analysts Solactive maybe did as well.
Knowing a whole wad of shares are due to be sold is handy to know. Trading volumes fired up out of the blue as people dumped. BUT GlobalX holdings didnt drop. Probably smaller funds/traders given the insight. Large ones cant be given that info till its due on the traditional portfolio revalue. GlobalX is their biggest follower of the index. (maybe this happened. Maybe it was other platforms. Who knows. But what ever happened it happened exactly at this time and intensely)
Either way the ill effect was again exactly in line with the ill effect GlobalX sell down had on the SP. But this time via a mad scramble and not a staged sell down pattern like Global X tried to do.Large orders came out of the blue. So the share price dropped fast to 6 cents as huge dumps occurred again and again. I thought it may be due to EIA delays. But with such large holdings being dumped in one hit beyond the usual holdings of day traders (eg million plus). I knew it had to be something more. But I wasn’t privay to the info so we had to wait and see to then discover what Solactive were doing
Solactives rebalancing portfolio was issued Jan 28th where it shows they were all out of GGG.You may remember sell orders dropped down to 2-3k again in late Jan? ….and boom. The Sp at this time jumped 30%. The selling stopped in large volumes and it flew back up to 7 cents again from its low of 5.7.again when the selling stopped it bounced.
Its obvious there really is nothing you can do when someone wants to dump tens of millions down on a share. Especially when sellers probably double that in fear factor and buyers see this and get spooked wondering why and hold off on their buying. But clearly there are plenty of buyers in wait to force the share price back up 30% within days of the board sell volumes dying off.As shown before a few times now.
Unfortunately however GlobalX, committed to follow the Solactive Index, then saw this rebalancing statement on Jan 28th and bang on after they began their own offloading. Before the SP could regain anymore ground from 7 cents, with seriously light boards all the way back to 9 cents again. GlobalX cut the rally short as seen all before and started their own onslaught again following on from the damage previously done.They hit the boards very hard. Disposing of 1/3 of their holdings in the first two days. I watched those sales as well and wondered who on earth was selling now. Global X seemed the likely culprit and I checked the holdings and it was moving down again. They clearly had decided to follow suit.
I don’t post this info on the boards and just share it with a few others, Posting such info on the HC boards merely causes added panic to the situation as other holders get spooked as well. Not understanding, or not caring, why. It’s a silly move if youre a holder to go pointing this fact out as all youll do it spook the market more than what is necessary.
500k to a million odd at a time landed as sells. When there were no other sellers prepared to sell all the way back up to almost 9 cents. It was crazy. But GlobalX didn’t care about price. They just wanted out.2-3k sellers is as low in volume as youll ever see on the sell side of GGG boards. But with 1 mill drops on the buy side coming out of the blue and talk on HC of GlobalX back on the move. That turned the boards around again fast and the volume quickly doubled for the seller side to 7mill then even 10 mill which was a first.
So Global Xs continued.. Dumping a ton (70% plus of volume of all shares traded) for some days.
If you dump down 70%-90% of ALL sell volume for the day. In big 500k-1mil lots. You are definitely going to cause a trend no matter how good everything looked just days before.
Stage 4 New Globalx Sell Down Result on Share Price
So once again what do we have?
PERFECT unision. Every time inline with every date its always the same.
These are my notes…
Wed 6th/Thursday 7thDumped 4 millin/5.2 million down to 7 million.(76% volume)
8th they dumped 1.1/1.18mill million to 5.5 million. (93% volume)
11th 500k/700k= 5.1k (70% volume)
12th 200k/300k= 4.9mill(75% volume)
This drop of volume destroyed the share price. It went from 7 cents en they started a hold off phase to get buyers back on the boards while seemingly dumping 20% of trading volume. Unfortunately they started a new panic phase from people simply not knowing better.
13th 100,000/2,400,000=4.8mill (5% volume)
14th 400k/1.5mill= 4.4mill (26%)
15th= 300/1.7 million= 4.11mill (17%
)19th 310k/1.5k= 3.8mill (22%)
20th 300k/1.5mill= 3.5mill (20% trade volume)
21st 400/1,25mill= 3.1mill (30% volume)
22nd 100/3.1mill= 3mill (7% volume)
25th 500k/3mill= 2.5mill (25% volume)
26th 1.3mill/2mill= 1.2mill (65% volume) (strong drop day dropped sp from 5.6-5.1cents)
27th 600k/3million= (25% of volume)
Then we had a number of people in here updating what GlobalX was doing and selling. This would have done nothing but two things. Added volume to the sellers. Reduced volumes on the buyers. Like clockwork that’s what has happened from the first announcements. To the most recent the day after announcement and the Sp crashed further under 6 cents to 5 cents then bounced to 5.5 cents.
. I suspect too we have the sellers thinking they will short trade it. Sell and await the bottom or when GlobalX is out. Then buy in again. But I doubt they get a chance too. The boards end up too light and given the two quick 30% gains we have had before theres a scramble on a tighly held share and they probably often miss out.
However we have seen the classic jump in and a 10% so far.
On Friday we finally saw buyers reforming. Seller volumes dropping off of the boards and things levelling a bit more with equal amount of buyers and sellers at just under 4k each side. Which we haven’t seen for a while since all this dumping started.
This shift has always been the trigger to the upcoming surge.This is such a good sign.
GlobalX are down to a measerely 600k left to sell and I suspet they sold that at 5.7 cents on opening today.
GlobalX is now something of the past and their past year of sell down damage has ended in relief for all holders.
Now while others see weakness in whats going on during this fall. I see strength. We have had a lot of new holders hit these HC boards as we have the ASXs. News is getting out and buyers are coming in knowing the big jumps are now due.
1 cent drop, even 2 if needed to soak up 15 million (plus spooked sellers) in a few weeks is rather impressive. People are clearly seeing worth and mounting their orders buffering GlobalXs onslaught.
Monday 11th I watched Global X drop 2 million to punch ths SP from 6.3 to 5.7 and back came new buyers to reclaim 50% of the difference in two hours. Ive never seen that much strong activity buying back in before.
Buyers are clearly there and they are obviously keen.
But the Global X dumping pattern is really spooking them and then they sell in turn. Most the sell orders seem light but continuous. Small holders panicking. Most dont even know about GlobalX and if they do, why they are selling. They will awake to this.
This morning no one was selling down. Just sitting tight. The dust settled. The trades went from 5.5 to 5.9 and down again with a big gap as traders wondered what to make of this. Traders will slowly see GlobalX is gone and the fear should disapate over the next few days or week and I suspect and the floor continue to strengthen and grow until it pushes into the very light ceiling above it.
Now whats going to happen now GlobalX are gone?Lets look at what we already know….
This constant sell down will stop, very soon, leaving the boards light as we have seen twice before and as we can now see forming.
Buyers will jump back in fast again as we have seen thrice before and they will arrive very fast too
However note this side jumps fast. (Generally within a day or two)
Boards will look light back to 9 cents again as we have again seen and what the market was happy with prior to this slab tranche selling. We can see this now.
Absent the sellers will it get that far up?
the sell orders at 3.5k and buyers near 3.5k as having done so prior (with furthered news interim) my bet is it will given no other announcements that may offer further ill effect.
Fear Turns to GreedThe second leg of the recovery always seen after both these two dump periods will likely re-emerge simply knowing the dumping is kaput and their influence is finally all over. Investors want to here a sell down has ended.
Value investors arrive.
Chartists on the trend.
The rest we have seen before the last time this happened when GlobalX stopped dumping…everyone stopped dumping…. and the share price went straight back up again.
But whats GGG worth and where will the share price head now?Where will it head and why?
Id suspect easily back to 10 cents given its far more advanced then any before and the previous sell down returned to 10 ents over the months ahead.
Then considering it has 6.7 cents in the bank and its spent some almost $110mill to get the project here thus far. Then just simply for raw base value absent any enterprise value at all (eg without a licence or for one of the biggest resource lodes of REE and uranium in the world).
We are looking at 17-18 cents total.
This fits all 3-4 broker reports we have seen posted here to date currently assessing GGGs value continually at this stage of development between 18 cent min and 40 cent top. As it apparently it assumes the lode is worth nothing at 18 cents which matches this raw value to advance the project to this stage absent lode figure. Up to 40 cents given the market decides to allow some value toward the resource being accessible in time as the applications look forever likely.
$1 is the lode being accepted as accessible via a mining licence. This now includes enterprise value. Beyond dependent on further news flow and/or occurences.
But for now Id expect the 10 cent mark to at least return again.
Hopefully plus some knowing much good news has transpired since when the market reached 20. Im hoping for 12-14 cents again and Id consider this conservative. Once we get an announcement on the EIA and the holders are more assured.
They were prepared to pay 10.5 without it in so 20-30% isn’t a huge ask as premium with it submitted.
Whats GGGs biggest future selling point on where the share price will go?Clearly application progression. But theres another factor often forgotten that will have an even bigger effect.
Who else is stupid enough to still sell and cause this trouble again?
No one.
Theres no one left.
The trauma is all over now.
Look at how tightly held this share is.
You have the top 5 shareholders sitting tight with the exact same holdings for years and they hold HALF the company.
The top 20 share holders also look much the same as to last year and they hold 70% of the company total.
I know a small band of holders sitting at 5% and they aren’t selling either.
So that’s 75% held not changing for up to many years.
Are they holding tight?
Sure! Look at the market releases. For 3-4 years we haven’t had ONE substantial holding change (besides director rights amendments). I think in 2015 we had one sell down a little. But besides that its only been GlobalXs sell down and Shenghes uptake theres been nothing for 4 years!
EVERYONES WAITING.
You know what happens when this happens right? When no one wants to sell?
Look at what happened when Shenghe first joined the shareholding and no one sold and everyone reacted to the newsflow with a tight amount of shares held. 5 to 20 cents is x 400%. Now many years later its almost down to this level again with a major news stream around the corner suggestive of heading higher stillgiven a good result.
Its that last 25% that’s freely traded beyond what appeasr to be "Held" hands ….and who owned almost HALF OF THAT "traded volume"?You got it Global Xs 108mill
So is it surprising to see a 10 to 5.7 cent drop when almost HALF of roughly traded shares are dropped over 10-12 months? I think you get the point here. Supply has just been too strong on the sell side and absent any real reason beyond a "policy" for the seller to sell so.
This has a high chance that existing holders of high net worth or knowledge base are accumulating either due to expecting something to happen or just knowing their stake is firm and wanting more at a cheaper price. Probably all of the above.I suspect the chinese are perhaps joining in too. But it doesn’t matter. What matters is this share is extremely well accumulated by heavy hitters who are waiting for…well… what are they waiting for? I think its obviously the pot of gold and they are buying an ever bigger slice in anticipation of it as things are looking ever more up every day.
Like a rich mans club of high stake holders.
Totalling less than 300 shareholders all sitting tight. This is a very good sign youll hardly ever find in any share for one of the biggest REE and uranium lodes on the planet.
Look at that 80million offload by GlobalX at 7.6 cents as an example. They sourced that out in weeks and the buyer of them surely knew he could disperse them all at that value pretty fast. How they found buyers for 80 million that fast was extremely impressive.You must admit the market interest is definately there for that to happen and that was at a much highher price..
We are far lower than that price now and well under book value which has always been any shares huge support.
This to me is all heading one way when the supply wanes to the ever arriving demand.
Boom.
All in theory, value and historical demonstration as clearly shown by correlating the SP with these funds selling patterns above time and time again.
I just cant see any more falls from here when the ones watching this and value investors jump all back in again like they did before.
The light sell board will appear even more evident up to 9 cents. Look at the order detail now and youll see it.
As it has twice before before it boomed. I am hoping again for the same.
What can you do to take part in the upturn?
Nothing.
Just do what 75% of the shareholders are already doing for years.
Analyze, accumulate and dont sell.
See the long term worth and why. See the strong interest in the project from the biggest players in the world (Shenghe). See how they took the share price to 20 cents on news of their arrival and given continued interest will this expect more? (Because if the biggest player in the world has a stake already and wants more. But cant as policy restricts them of which they are very keen to change so they can)).
Heres a chance to get in before they are allowed and hold during this final stage where GGG gets awarded enterprise value slowly over the year ahead.
You can short term trade and risk missing out for smaller bounces or hold for what could well be one of the tighest held shares holding the biggest REE and Uranium lode on the planet. Europes first and only REE source and potentially only uranium mine.
Or at worst if GGG simply follows the exact path as when faced with this sell down before.A 5.5 cents to 9-10 cents jump (doesn’t sound much. But if you take another look that’s a quick 60-80% gain.) and far more in time according to all current broker reports and many sitting here, including several of these broker reports, feeling x20 is a highly likely case in a year or two.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/something-to-read.4325200/page-3?post_id=34587126
do not advertise external links.au/companies/news/177269/greenland-minerals-and-energy-receives-a-speculative-buy-from-rm-research-177269.html
THIS IS JUST MY THOUGHTS GUYS! I AM NOT PERFECT BUT AFTER A YEAR OF RESEARCHING MY ASS OFF THIS I THINK MANY WILL AGREE IS SCREAMING WITH POTENTIAL AND MULTI BAGGER PROFITS GIVEN VERY SIMPLE AND LIKELY NEWS FLOW.
What ever happens its possibly worth grabbing a stake at a time where it seems clear this may well be as low as it will ever go for all these reasons and historically proven to bounce from when in this exact situation several times offering considerable gains (GlobalX Final Sell Out).
I am for the first time ever calling these days the all time bottom and will be joining in on the buy up from here and hope the rest of the market joins in too.Time will tell I guess!
Good luck to you all.
