Modeling The Fiscal Break-Even PriceUsing the framework...

Modeling The Fiscal Break-Even Price

Using the framework described in Figure 1, we derive
annual government's budget revenues (GBR) as:

GBR = xQap + y[Eap –C] + NHFR + rSWF + ?SF [1]

Where:
Q is commercial production of hydrocarbon;
E is hydrocarbon export;
C is the hydrocarbon industry's full-cycle cost;
NHFR is non-hydrocarbon fiscal revenue;
r is the return on SWF;
SWF is the value of financial assets accumulated in a
Sovereign Wealth Fund;
?SF is the flow to and from a Stabilization Fund;
x is hydrocarbon production-weighted royalty rate;
y is the average rate of hydrocarbon taxation;
p is the average oil export price.

Assuming returns from SWFs are re-invested and ignoring,
as justified in the text, ?SF, we derive the fiscal oil breakeven price, from equation 1, as:
p = a-1 (EXP – NHFR +yC)/(xQ +yE) [2]

Where:
EXP is budget and extra-budget expenditures
a is an oil-natural gas price adjustment factor relative
to the value of OPEC basket of crudes.