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Hi guys,
First timer but a long time sufferer!Dont know what they're doing with the AR but the QR wont be far behind.Now that we have a mine producing at a profit,what do we think the price should be? Quick back of envelope calculation suggests 3.5cps. I have based this on 50000 oz at 300 USD earnings pa or 15 mio USD pa. (no more hedging)Depending on multiples - I've taken 6- a bit conservative but short mine life so far, MC should be about 90 mio USD or 120 mio AUD - close enough to 3.5cps. Upside is POG. When it gets to 1400USD +, the extra goes straight to the bottom line, so potential here is another 30%, taking valuation to 4.5cps. What are the chances? USD will probably weaken against EUR, but if it also weakens against AUD, might take a bit of the shine off. New CEO is on a performance bonus of extending mine life about 30% for memory and reducing debt over 2 years. There is no doubt there are more ozs in the tenements. Should be a breeze and big bonus for him even though very few have collected on the performance bonus in the past. Positive here will push price in direction of 6cps. On the down side there will be more dilution to pay off Merdeka but if they keep finding, there should be a net positive
The downside of this stock is the low turnover. Need to get a bit more trading in the stock. Needs to be organising more PR. Get AR out of the way follow up with QR, need some good drilling results to talk about. Half yearly report will show the positive figures. Need a positive broker rating and a research report to spread the word so time for SUM to get organised.
Stash and Richie have been doing most of the heavy lifting to dat so hope this gives a bit for all to mull over.