This is a clear buy... Despite recent volatility in global sharemarkets, demand for thermal coal remains extremely buoyant, record prices are reflecting an increasingly tighter supply-demand balance as a number of developing Asian countries steadily increase their domestic electricity supply. Unfortunately for CEY, 80% of its coal production is destined for domestic consumption, at an average contract price around A$40/t. Therefore, if CEY is to benefit at all from these historically high prices, it is critical that the company increase its production profile above that required by its long-term domestic contracts, allowing any additional tonnages to be exported. To meet this challenge, the company is embarking on a number of site projects with the specific aim to increase its production profile, including opening new operations. Although a specific path has not yet been enunciated, the company is aiming to have approximately half of its thermal coal production designated for export by 2013.
And most of its domestic coal contracts come up for renegotiation in 2014.
So bring on 2014 recalculate the revenue numbers (costs should remain similar) and you get a completely different story with this company.
Problem is, 2014 is a long-way off. And one can do a lot of things with investment money between now and then.
CEY Price at posting:
$4.00 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Not Held