Just when you thought it was safe to get back into the markets, there is another threat emerging on the horizon. And this one looks deadly. Not just an inconvenience like Europe's debt problems, this one threatens genuine destruction.
In recent days rumours and reports have been circulating that an attack on Iran is back on the West’s agenda. Israel it seems is getting sweaty itchy twitchy palms concerning an unacceptable threat to its existence - Iranian nuclear weapons. To defend itself against this potential existential threat some Israeli politicians are considering proactive action. Others are vocally opposed to a massive attack on Iran.
Israel and Western governments fear that Iran's civil nuclear program masks a drive for atomic weapons. Iran is busily relocating its nuclear facilities deeply underground. Once these are underground, the option to stop Iran's progress will cease. The window for preventing Iran creating an impenetrable nuclear program is therefore closing. This timetable is placing pressure on western military planners.
The headline of today’s top story on the UK Guardian newspaper’s website is, UK military steps up plans for Iran attack amid fresh nuclear fears.
The art of risk management is to consider both the likelihood of an adverse event occurring and the potential damage that would occur should that adverse event occur. Even if you regard the likelihood of the UK going headlong into another Middle East war is to be slim, you must accept that the repercussions from a military conflict with Iran would be immense. It seems that Washington has been warned by Israel against leaving any military action until it is too late. The USA, concerned that Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities may be soon has approached the UK and asked them to prepare for such an outcome. If Israel goes in, even alone, Tehran will retaliate by targeting US/UK assets, and then the US/UK will be in the fight of their life. The US should therefore be in this fight from the beginning.
An International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear watchdog Iranian report is due on 8 November.
Last weekend, the New York Times reported that the US was looking to build up its military presence in the ME, with one eye on Iran. According to the paper, the US is considering sending more naval warships to the area, and is seeking to expand military ties with the six nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
A story in todays SMH has the headline, Israel tests rocket amid Iran strike talk. According to this story Israel has created and tested a "ballistic missile" (my interpretation - capable of delivering a nuclear warhead). The Israeli newspaper Haaretz, quoted the ministry as saying that the successful missile test was unrelated to a report that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was seeking cabinet support for a pre-emptive strike on Iran. But it just might be.
In September, Newsweek magazine reported that Washington had secretly authorised the sale of 55 powerful bunker-busting bombs to Israel, although the US administration declined to comment on the report. The bombs are designed to destroy targets buried deep underground and could be used to strike well-protected Iranian nuclear facilities.
Any attack by Israel on Tehran’s nuclear facilities would involve hundreds of aircraft and drones. The Iranians no doubt would retaliate with similar numbers. The "Zionist regime's military attack against Iran," Chairman of Iran's Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Hassan Fayrouz Abadi said, would lead to "heavy damages to the US as well as [to the] Zionist regime," Iranian news agency ISNA reported.
Israel has a fleet of drones, including the Heron TPs (Eitans) the largest and most sophisticated drone made in Israel. An Eitan has a wingspan of 26 meters – similar to that of a Boeing 737. It is capable of carrying out reconnaissance and intelligence missions in an altitude of up to 40,000 feet, and can remain airborne 36 hours. Eitan's large size allows it to carry a variety of equipment such as radars, sensors and camera, and, theoretically, missiles. In other words these weapons platforms can make it can fly to all the way Iran and back again.
The window of opportunity for peace and persuasion is closing. The IAEA report may be a catalyst which kicks off a frenzy of diplomatic and potentially military actions.
