Key investment takeaway:
- softening consumer demand in the US notwithstanding Trump's shovel ready money and tax cuts.
What we don't know
The metrics and correlations. We are in uncharted waters (globally). Nobody can properly guess the extent to which interest rates rises and tightened credit will impact consumer demand in any particular region or industry. We can but wait and see but I'm feeling very bearish on a lot of fronts. That is because so-called non performing loans are relatively high in the EU, China (and presumably elsewhere) even at close to zero interest rates. I also have little faith in the ability of central banks to hold actual interest rates down in current conditions.
cheers
