General Discussion Banter GLN, page-904

Agree with most of what you say, although I think a MC target of $120m next to a POSCO sale of $370m is a little bearish. Not totally unrealistic, just bearish, even over the short term.

$370m for POSCO is a sale price but that is well short of the potential NPV of that project. I accept that pretty much all lithium plays, even producers, are trading well below NPV but that’s all on the back of current market sentiment imo.

What is difficult to rationalise as an investor is seeing most lithium stocks trading down, lithium chemical prices trading down, yet billions of investment dollars from battery makers, auto makers, miners and governments flooding into the sector.

I’ve worked in mining for well over a decade and what I’ve observed in other commodities is that the big transactions by blue chip companies always occur at the bottom of the price cycle. Those guys know when to pick up bargains so that’s when the M&As always get done.

I’m not going to get into whether the current lithium downturn is organic or the result of manipulation, or predicting when the inevitable EV/ES boom will turn the market, but transactions like POSCO tell me we’re near the bottom of the cycle.

Therefore I think buying shares in GLN, even at say $350m (given a similar resource to POSCO) doesn’t mean there’s no upside if we hold out and go into production. In my opinion we’re funded to ride out this downturn and prove our resource while the market corrects.

And for the record I think a 1Mt JORC is lowballing it based on previous calculations.