Agree with the uphill battle to get to production under the current state of play in markets.
Don't have to look too far, GXY's market cap is A$800m, no debt, A$400m cash on hand implying an EV of A$400m. That's roughly what the market is valuing SDV + the operating hard rock My Cattalin asset which has been producing cash for a few years now.
Ajm was worth more when it was a patch of dirt than now that is has announced commercial production. Yes it is hard rock and has a pile of debt but it does highlight how far the market has retraced in the sector.
Getting to battery grade 99.5% LCE is where most of the cost is incurred and where brine producers have an advantage over hard rock mineral producers. Costs to produce hydroxide are on par with the lowest cost hard rock producers. So there isn't as much in it as might seem at first glance.
It hasn't helped that Chilean brine producers are having issues scaling up, albeit the issues there are specific to Chile, regulations are slowly catching up to years of operations under low regilation. Markets can be fickle and media does a great job at tossing all brine producers in the same basket.
For the doomsday preppers, many of whom have come out of the woodwork in recent days. It isn't the end of the world with hole 2 unconfirmed to be dusted. Even if it is, how are we forgetting the excellent results of hole 1 as if it never happened. So what if we don't have a 2m JORC, id settle for 500k and drill out the rest over time.
I remember speaking to a geo about resource size who told me the days of having a resource of supporting 5years mine life or less are gone the market wants more now. Somewhat odd to me.
In project finance, notwithstanding othrr inputs financiers typically want a mine life supporting a 30-50% tail at the back end of facility maturity to get comfort the debt can be repaid. This typically assumes the company will continue to expand the resource over time.
I guess it goes back to the broader lithium market thematic and the scaremongering going on daily about oversupply etc etc
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