what I think has not received much attention regarding the motives of the LNG FIDers, is the proposed introduction of the restrictions to extracting gas from the various restricted areas eg from Prime Agricultural land.
I wonder just how much of this "consolidation" is related to acquiring csg dirt that will not be affected by these proposed restrictions to csg extraction.
Thus if Shell et al thought that they had xxxxPJ of CSG available for their LNG projects, they may have determined that a certain chunk of that lay in land that is/or may be classified as "prime agricultural" land - hence they may fear that they may not be able to get hold of that gas anymore.
Hence they are hedging their bets by trying to acquire other gas resources which may lie within permits not classified as prime agricultural land?
these big boys will have realised that they need to work around/ and work within, the politics surrounding the CSG debate. ***************************
i think we have all agreed, that the BOW we knew before the Arrow bid, has now gone. the BOW that emerges after the dust settles will not be the same one as pre Arrow bid - no matter what happens. BOW is in play. its just a question of how, or in what form, BOW emerges from the other side. whilst on one level we have the cash bidders, on the other level we have the equity parties/ farmin parties, and/or the Offtake parties.
I don't think there will be anything in between.
I don't think that the scenario of BOW knocking back the Arrow bid, AND having no alternative, is an option at all.
They will, at some stage, come back with an alternative to the initial Arrow bid.
it will be in the form of a rejection of the initial Arrow offer, but a committment to "engage" with Arrow and other parties.
Or it will be the "furthering" of discussions with an alternative 3rd Party ie farmin, equity participant, LNG deal, GSA etc.
It will not be "go away Shell, we are continuing as-is".
FYI - I can very much recall RP standing in front of the AGM some years ago, and saying to the meeting, something along the lines that BOW will not be developing the resources to the point where BOW would produce LNG. The thrust was that BOW would get out well before that stage. That was alluded to in the AGM presentation. SO the point is, that these events in which we find ourselves, were unexpected.
On the one hand, I think "when the hell are they going to tell us something", but on the other hand I am thinking that they cannot tell us anything UNTIL they have something credible to present to s/h.
And if that "story" involves a Chinese/japanese/Korean entity, then time will just go on and on!
cheers cheers
BOW Price at posting:
$1.55 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
