The following post is made in jest and readers should definitely not use it for making investment decisions.
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For a good pub fight starter on a Friday afternoon, ignoring tax because of CTP’s extensive losses but considering reasonable amortisation of debt before reserves are depleted too much, the cost of paying the mob occupying mahogany alley in Brisbane HO, lawyers fees, the whole team working around the clock to keep Mereenie, Palm Valley & dingo plants operational, the cost of spares consumables Etc. for the annual shutdowns….. royalties new Toyota vehicles, our portion of enough work overs, drilling Etc. to maintain gas flows Etc. Etc….
One way to get a very rough idea of the profit per GJ at the site gate bearing in mind that IPL had no choice but to drive a hard bargain…
Take a hypothetical piece of fishing line and stretch it all the way around the earth parallel to the equator passing through the centreline of the Ensign rig that should have just about finished drilling PV13 and ignoring the great circle and Coriolis effect and assuming that thermal expansion is pretty well cancelled out because night & day are roughly equal at the equinox, since this is a only rough estimate lift the fishing line up so that it is 500 mm above the earth everywhere.
The additional amount of fishing line needed is surprisingly only about 3 Meters.
(I have started quite a few pub fights with this one)
Since the fishing line passes roughly through CTP’s tenements, by an amassing coincidence that the additional amount of line needed is approximately equal to the amount CTP will possibly make per GJ on the revenue gas they manage to put down the NGP. (20 TJ/day since they probably need the rest of the spare Palm valley gas to make up production shortfalls).
So the bookie at the proverbial pub could probably start with bets on CTP being ahead or behind on about $20M profit for the first year’s production after the NGP takes first gas.
Hopefully this ridiculous post will inspire CTP to give us information to do more accurate calculations at the forthcoming AGM presentation.
Best regards to all
OGP
