Gas and Coal Economics, page-30

Gents, you are true believers and I admire your faith.  I refer to this collection of readily available stuff:

https://www.ngcp.ph/power-situation.asp

https://www.doe.gov.ph/sites/defaul...wer_supply_demand_highlights_jan_jun_2017.pdf

https://businessmirror.com.ph/electricity-galore-from-shortage-to-oversupply/

http://www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/EPDP_MO.pdf

http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/wp-conte...-Competitive-Electricity-Market_5Sept2014.pdf

http://www.upecon.org.ph/epdp/wp-co...SM-Fundamentals-Executive-Course-May-2015.pdf

http://www.lantaugroup.com/files/ppt_rec16_sf.pdf

Note that for the current trading year, the market price cap in the NEM is $14,200/MWh.  Now that is a properly set price cap!

It appears that more competition is coming in the PH power sector and this is bad for higher cost generators that do not have long-term contracts.  More competition is coming partly because regulators know that they have been approving plants that have not been competitively bid in all cases (there are exceptions, such as Mariveles and other plants that have arisen out of competitive bids from groups of EC's).  But please understand that the momentum for approving all of the power supply agreements submitted to ERC before April 2016 is very strong, and I don't think that a single PSA has been rejected (yet -- and I could be wrong on this point, because who has time to check all ERC actions).

You only need two data points to really grasp the picture in PH: 1, demand is going up; 2, prices are going down (and not just because of fuel price decline).  That tells you that the supply/demand balance is getting looser, not tighter, and the selections above (which I found in less than 5 minutes on google) suggest that this is not necessarily just a blip.  It also tells you that investment strategies might well have made sense if an LNG fired plant came into the market in 2012.  Now you are looking at 2019, and it is a different market environment.  As they say, when the facts change, I change my mind.  As always, DYOR, and good luck.