Hi Cjs Yesterday I compared the chart of total shorts...

Hi Cjs

Yesterday I compared the chart of total shorts outstanding, relative to the inverse chart of the aud/usd ( or directly the usd/aud). Anecdotally it seems a good fit. This could imply shorts rise when the aussie depeciations. Meaning TFS could be
A. Part of some aussie / usd carry trade
B.warrant holders are doing what john said

Next stop correlation coefficient of total outstanding shorts to aud/usd
Parameters
1. Total shorts for the 1st of each month from jan 2014
2. Aud/usd rate for the 1st of each month from jan 2014
3. I think i have to take the change of both and log to remove bias . 100% gain and 50% loss are both same movement
4 run correlation coefficient with aud/usd being the first column?? Must check

With a minimum 28 data points, any number of 0.7, or 70% of the movement in net short positions is explained by the movement in the aud/usd, I think this could raise some pretty disturbing questions for TFS