@The Eastern Banjo Frog, I suggest you have a look at TFS's results presentation in August 2016. Pages 30 and 31 refer to a very recent report on sandalwood supply and demand by a "top tier global management consultancy firm". They conclude that the latent demand is so significant for this product that demand will rise from 4,000 tonnes to 20,000 tonnes in the 10 years from 2015 to 2025. In the same time, TFS's harvest will grow from 300 tonnes now to 9,000 tonnes by 2025, and to 12,000 tonnes by 2030. All other suppliers amount to only 3,000 tonnes by 2025 and 2030.
Also, thank you @JID for an excellent post. I agree with everything that you say, and I also conclude that the shorters are relying on investor impatience and a lack of knowledge in some investors leading to a propensity to panic on shorter-driven price drops. I love the volatility and now profit from it by trading 25% of my long-term holding.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.52 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
