You make some good points, which I''l comment on from the FA perspective. My son and I also averaged down on the basis of belief in the management team going forward. You make some good points, on which I''ll comment from the FA perspective.
Jules tends not to talk up the SP – he runs the company, which is his prime job, and lets the numbers speak for themselves. Also, he has learned a thing or two via the mining boom bust and the Samsung fiasco. I have lost a lot of money from companies dominated by executives and directors who fit a more negative mould (attention seekers, egotists, liars, playboys, the unethical to name a few types, and some people roll these up in a single negative persona). I am now inclined to back the guys in whom I trust.
I have no problem with the notion that the SP could rise to $3 within a year, because I believe that my $2.30 will be reached fairly soon. Notice that I use words like “notion”, “could” and “I believe” in that sentence. I believe that good enough is good enough, which means that if my $2.30 suffices to induce me to hold NWH, then I do not need a higher target than that, because for other reasons, I currently do not want to buy more, and I can reexamine mt target SP as more facts and thoughts come to mind in future months.
One sometimes gets the analysis right, but the timing wrong. When NWH dropped after my entry point of $2, my faith in the company did not, so I averaged down on a fairly large scale. I do not like that word “average”, because each purchase was based on its own perceived merits as a viable punt. With SGH, I was convinced that its management were on an ego trip, and that the expansion by acquisitions would end badly – they often do for aggregators. However, the SP continued upward, but my belief that it would end in tears remained, and it took five or more years for the fall from grace to happen.
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