FY17 Forecast

My goodness, the way EPW presents its Financial Accounts you need to be a Rhodes Scholar in accounting to unravel it.
"Statutory Profit for the year attributable to equity holders" of $35.809m but after inclusion of some $39.483m in - wait for it - 'Net Fair Value Gain/Loss on financial instruments designated at Fair Value through profit or loss"! Gulp, what in the blue blazes does that mean and then, how does said "statutory Profit" of $35m relate to the "underlying NPAT" of just $19.189m.
I'm really tempted to just dump this on the basis of 'if you cannot easily understand the accounts or business model (a la Enron), don't touch it'...but I'm sure there is someone in HC who has got this baby by the cojones. I like the reports as released today at the AGM and it seems to me that EPW has a significant competitive advantage in a very fierce market..but they also have some complicated debt structures and tortious reporting methodologies.

I note they work out the EPS based on the Statutory Profit and given that the Operating Cash Flows are significantly higher than Stat Profit I'll accept that this is okay.

So, what about FY17?

The company do give some guidelines but leave it to poor clods like me to try and join the dots...and I'm a struggling "dot joiner" I can tell you...particularly when the dots look like they are significantly less than FY16.

For all their bluster about the US division, it apparently contributed no profit in FY16 according to the segment report...but their estimates for FY17 would indicate an EBITDAF of around $20m. I make EBITDAF for Aust at $32.5m (much less than the $54.45m for FY16) which backs up their assertions of massive margin squeeze.

Withe the generation assets also reflection significantly less EBITDAF for FY17 as well, I cannot see this throwing any more than 9.5c is FY17 (v 14.6c in FY16).

Thoughts?