Worth reading through ARU's DFS summary report section 10...

Worth reading through ARU's DFS summary report section 10 Implementation. There they show a schedule that has them commissioning 30 months after project commitment which itself requires offtake then funding being secured. Then section 14 Marketing that shows pretty strong demand growth for NdFeB magnets driven largely by mass EV adoption, leading to an NdPr oxide supply shortfall of 25,000 tonnes in a decade (remember Nolans will produce only 4,357 tonnes of NdPr each year).

I can't see a crazy 2011-12 situation coming but I'm no geopolitical expert! More like steady price growth on the back of rising global demand for NdFeB, raw material supply constraints, and China quarantining is domestic NdPr production (and any rare earth concentrates it can import from elsewhere, so long as this doesn't create domestic waste management issues from these foreign sourced concentrates - sound familiar?!) for Chinese downstream manufacturing.