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I read somewhere that one of the main considerations is what's for the good of the country
".
How much Foreign Aid does/has Australia given Australia?
Compare to France, China seeking to expand influence, Malaysia with cultural/religious ties, etc etc.
Billions of dollars over 30 years.
These things are discussed at the very highest level, and decisions made not necessarily on the highest price but the "best fit".
Lots of "politics".
No disrespect to WPL but just can't see how their face fits.
Could be that if the decision goes against FAR that WPL will win the day, the Govt will be forced to approve the deal, not having valid grounds to reject it, but I still believe that there is a pretty good chance that will not be the case.
FAR didn't take their case to the courts without the express approval of the Govt. It was a year before they did so.
WPL got an Arete with the Govt describing them as "participating".
A win for FAR will enable everyone at the highest Governmental levels to get what they want, remembering that Senegal's preferred operator
is most likely a State oil company with implications of Foreign Aid etc.
A lot of time has gone by, much more than many of us thought, but in reality nothing has changed, while the project has progressed.
We think that the delays have been COP WPL dragging the chain, but who knows, it may have well suited to have WPL keeping the seat warm, paying the bills. I don't believe that the passage of time gives WPL encumbrance. This is a pretty standard O & G project.
A change in Operator would not be a problem.
As for FAR and funding etc, if "Big Oil" is in the wings then an amicable deal will be done with everyone happy except perhaps WPL.
Wishful thinking? Only my take on it, that I have had for some time.
Haven't seen any reason to change my mind yet.
FAR also having PE rights over any CNE sell down also has CNE snookered as well. At least any potential buyer of a CNE sell down unlikely to want to commit before FAR's PE case resolved.
Far from the pressure being on FAR I see them being in the box seat. At worst 13.5% of a good project.
As for paying the bills. I trust that management have this sorted.
It follows from the above that FAR be tight lipped. That is what I would expect.
Consequently we hear almost nothing from them, especially as regards PE. Some use this to "beat up" management, but as I say it is exactly what I would expect.
Either you trust them, like them and buy/hold or sell, plenty of other opportunities out there.
Nothing that I haven't said before.
GLTA
(20min delay)
