The funding deal does give you some insight though.
Share buy-backs generally indicate that management see the share price as being undervalued.
The agreement with Acuity is a "reverse buy-back" (as stated on the term sheet). So to me this indicates the converse.
Regardless of any news there is going to seelling pressure due to this agreement.
There's plenty more risk/reward opportunities if you ask me.
Even if you look at the project itself:
- Cash runs out 30th March 2018;
- Smelters still need to be shipped;
- Smelters still need to installed;
- Smelters are not brand new - they are salvaged smelters that are being refurbished (think sourcing parts from a wrecker) - there will be ongoing maintenance costs / higher risk that one breaks down;
- Project requires working capital;
- Power costs significantly higher than comparable companies;
- Sovereign risk - Indonesia could suddenly implement a 50% tax;
- No DSO permit;
- In fact do they even have a permit to sell anything yet?
GMC will of course "update" the market about these milestones being "imminent", but that doesn't mean anything.
You just have to look at how many updates were released about the "imminent" receipt of cash from Pak Marthen. Despite about 10 announcements confirming it was progressing, he bailed.