Good stuff Spokes, and good pick ups Big K :) Just a few...

Good stuff Spokes, and good pick ups Big K

Just a few thoughts from me to smash your comments together with a bit of math to try and level out those discrepancies.

Subtract the cash at WAF puts you at $170m EV, squash the VEC cash/debt to neutral (0) so all things 'equal' here for a moment.

$170m and 90% ownership means $188m at 100% ownership

VEC at this price with dilution (in favor of WAF, ignoring escrow to make it more conservative) puts VEC at around $33m, or $55m at 60% ownership (or without dilution, 27m or 45m)

So VERY VERY roughly speaking, without accounting for any other metrics, just flattening the cash positions and adjusting for ownership - if VEC was equal to WAF we would be trading at 6.8c WITH dilution, and 7.5c whilst escrow in place.


If VEC 3.2moz becomes... ((upgraded size / 3.2) * 6.8c) .... based on an equivalent share price of 6.8c (diluted) If you want to consider the equivalent price whilst escrow in place, multiply by roughly 1.1
10moz = 21.5c? (or 23.6 with escrow)
15moz = 31.8c? (or 35 with escrow)
20moz = 42.5c? (or 46.7 with escrow)

Assuming the relationship between size and market cap is linear which is won't be (The envelope starts to fall apart the more you write on it, right?)

I'd say 10moz is probable, so I've started the escalation from there.


I hate comparisons like this, we could throw numbers around until the cows come home but ultimately you can never get to the point of comparing apples to apples, each play is a little bit unique, and of course - how do you price good will? What's the price of a director with his sleeves rolled up? etc. etc. - not the point of this post but just my 2 cents for what comparisons are worth.

As you say however, even adjusting for more 'accurate' figures and trying not to get carried away with rose coloured glasses - VEC speaks for itself, we don't need a WAF comparison to know our current MC is quite literally laughable. It has been so due to long delays and doubt this thing might fall over - completely de-risked, brakes will come off.


All of the numbers above are just completely IMO to try and add some sort of additional perspective to the math here - I'm not implying they are accurate SP predictions for VEC, but the range speaks for itself, IMO.

P.S. - apology for the messy post, hope it makes sense to people what I am trying to say lol.