There are certainly a lot of positives here but there are some things we do need to consider when talking value, notably:
1. About half the resource identified in the Feb 2018 Ann is in the indicated category - Post #: 30816853. The mine plan here is actually twofold in that Feb Ann been open cut (where a 1/3rd of that resource will be developed from based on the current resource estimates) and the remainder targeted as an underground mine. This information is in the Feb 2018 Ann in the link herein, but might change in due course. You do not mine an 'inferred resource' btw - see point 7 below.
2. Point 1 raises a few issues because costs differ between underground and open cut mining. VEC has an exceptional grade of gold under the proposed acquisition, because in open cut mining, mines for example in Australia can be viable, assuming sufficient ore, when the ore grades 1 g/t (grams per tonne ) to 2 g/t. Here the gold ore in the open cut section grades plus 6 g/t, and already they have around 650,000 ounces in that Indicated Category - table 3 of the Feb 2018 Ann. And I expect costs to be lower in the DRC than Oz.
3. In terms of the underground section, cut off grades are generally higher than open pit operations, but here the ore still grades plus 5 to 6 g/t. But cut of grades can be 3 g/t or more for underground mines depending on the extent of the orebody - https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/gold-investing/world-class-gold-deposits/
4. Going to the VEC Feb Ann, the cut offgrade in the open pit section was proposed at O.8 g/t, whilst for underground mine was 2 g/t in terms of the JORC Code, but the DFS will more specifically pinpoint the cut off grade. In terms of the underground section - Table 4 of the Feb 2018 Ann- they have 850,000 ounces in the Indicated category and when you add that to the ounces in the Indicated Category in the proposed open pit section you get roughly 1.5 million ounces in the Indicated category here already identified in the proposed acquisition (with another half in the Inferred bucket). See point 7 below.
5. What I am alluding to is this will be a complicated development, which I suspect will start with open cut mining, and when that resource is exhausted they will then move to underground mining. Unless of course they can do more mining through open cut.
6. A real positive here is VEC has essentially been gifted US$70 million in capex as well as having many of the approvals in place. This development can therefore be fast tracked to production with just a few hurdles to clear IMO
7. Having a resource in the Indicated category is a very good thing. When you have an indicated and measured resource you can then apply some economic and technical principles to see how much of that resource ends up in a proven and probable reserve that underpins the bankable study (i.e. a mining development) - essentially your DFS. Note: Inferred resource does not lead to a mine unless that resource is pushed into the measured and indicated category. I note in thecurrent Ann they are also talking about some further drilling - the idea behind that is to boost up your indicated and measured resource so that you can then do your bankable study on and move the indicated and measured resource to the proven and probable category which underpins mining decisions. The pic below explains that:
8. Suspect after the acquisition VEC will fast pace the DFS, but will do some more drilling to get more resource into the measured and indicated category on which the DFS will be based upon.
9. In terms of profit, we want more resource in the open cut category, hence, the reason for writing this post as cost structure differ in open cut to underground mining (as does mining process obviously and rate of extraction of the gold ore). Profit outcomes should nonethless be good here IMO hence why I expect VEC to rerate well over the next few weeks
10. Obviously this is a great acquisition but need to keep this in perspective that things still have to be done before mining starts but the building blocks are certainly there, and by hitting the ground running I wouldn't be surprised if mining doesn't start here sometime in 2020/21 as a guess (assuming funding also comes in a timely manner but noting VEC does have some building blocks in capex already funded in that US$70 million gift that I yabbered about above).
All IMO IMO IMO