https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lithium-blunders-from-big-3-oz-joe...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lithium-blunders-from-big-3-oz-joe-lowry/?published=t

Emerging Blunder #4, comes from the ‘Merry Old Land of Oz”. I am a big a fan of Australia. Friendly, hard working people, great food and a long standing mining culture. The strength of Australia is also their weakness. Too many Aussies talk about “lithium mining”. Yes, lithium is mined in Oz but that is the easy part. The alpha but certainly not the omega. The rest of the world clearly understands that lithium is really a chemical business with, in some cases, a mining component.

Australia and many newly minted lithium pundits born and bred in Oz talk about Western Australia as the #1 lithium producer on the planet. To those who think that is true, let me ask – if you are #1, why aren't you currently in the top 3 in lithium value capture? I will leave my Aussie readers to curse me on Hot Copper while they search their souls for the answer or re-read the “The Lithium Valley”- LOL. Please listen to Episode 23 of the Global Lithium Podcast where one of your own talks common sense about capturing value downstream. I admire what “the man from the land down under” aka Ken Brinsden has done at Pilbara. He understands the future and has a practical plan to get there as Pilbara grows. He knows that the future lies in Australian companies capturing value from both mining and lithium chemical production.

http://lithiumpodcast.com/podcast/e23-a-man-from-a-land-down-under/

Not to worry only two more “blunders to go”. I find it entertaining when I read someone with no real lithium industry experience stating that his forecast is for lithium hydroxide to grow 43% per year for the next five years. Really? Based on what? More than likely what he read on #lithium yesterday on twitter. Quite a specific number without context or supporting documentation. Why not 43.2% since the person is likely guessing rather working from a well thought out model anyway?

Yes, lithium hydroxide is growing at a rapid pace but the narrative that high nickel cathode growth will cause hydroxide demand to exceed carbonate in the next few year is not something most lithium insiders believe especially with the much slower than expected 811 NMC implementation. Blunder #5 – expecting that the future of lithium demand belongs to hydroxide. Come 2025 more carbonate than hydroxide will still be sold – take it to the bank. Lithium demand will definitely be more balanced between the two products but the demise of lithium carbonate has been greatly exaggerated.

I will repeat an old point here - the number of lithium experts is very limited. While I respect the skills of a few analysts with no industry experience – that number is also very small. I trust lithium experts with names like Vijay and Gerrit and analysts with names like Chris, Jingwen, Andy and Alex. A few of the "less than gifted amateur analysts" out there seem to think that a large volume of words makes their work more credible. That is rarely the case.