I think your asking the wrong question here Joe,
To be honest the POGO purchase was a surprise to me... Is POGO profitable not according to Sumitomo or they wouldn't have sold it. That mill issue alone gives us a snapshot of how Sumitomo was running the operation. No care for the equipment, assets being run hard to more than capacity and it was all about the bottom line... I was under no illusion that this going to be a quick easy turn around. I've factored in new equipment and drilling expenditure as part and parcel of getting this to scratch.
The acquisition was fair price knowing that there was at least 150+ tons of gold in there at least. There in lies the real value of this purchase. i.e. Even if the AISC at the present time is terrible betting on the POG higher in the medium term makes POGO profitable. Albeit the margins won't be all that large... If POG drops hard POGO will not be profitable. Simple as that...
Historically the Japanese way of doing things never bode well for North America, vis-à-vis Japanese foray into the Coal and Steel industries in the 80's. I think Australians are a better fit up there and should improve the culture and hence the AISC a bit.
I've known NST since it was a bootstrap operation and I have no doubt they can turn POGO around. The real question here is time... The expectation of the new holders jumping into NST for the POGO purchase was unbelievable and I doubt they looked at this acquisition in the proper time-frame it deserves. 12 to 18 months at least before we see meaningful AISC decrease. I've pasted the GS report into POGO below as there is no doubt the way it is unfolding is less than ideal and in my view will take a bit of time to resolve.
Investors best temper their POGO expectations at present....pun intended on the double meaning
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I think your asking the wrong question here Joe, To be honest...
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