Here is a couple of things I want to address...
War and Syrian refugee problem is a symptom of the West riding on their high horses dishing out quick fixes of so called Democracy and western standards of life style. Look at Iraq, Libya and Egypt. All in the name of Democracy? If so the response was muted in the Muslim brotherhood defense? I am questioning the process and not defending Muslim brotherhood just in case anyone gets the wrong idea. I thought it was a bad idea what they were doing in Libya in defence of "free speech/Democracy" and now you get lawlessness, likewise Iraq. And they want to beat over Assad? Iran is only too happy to get involved as the ME polishing their long swords waiting to revenge and dominate religious politics as well as settle old scores. And then we have the left wing pollies who knows what's best for society especially Her Merkel with their million person open door. Does she reckon the refugees will volunteer the count and then stop at 1mil trekkers? I've been to France more time then I've been to Margaret River with some family ties and if you think our Labor party Gillard/Rudd is soft on from Center you haven't seen French politics. Almost communist in some of their policies by our standard and you wonder why there is so much discontent with Muslims! Next time you go to Europe, spend some time in Marseilles or Barbez in Paris and you might just get a different feel of multiracial society frictions LOL.
Now a couple of things I think you stand out like a typical retail mug mind set. And here it goes....
The reason I treat gold as a commodity is to stop myself from walking around prepping myself for the big one. It is always around the corner if you follow some of the posters in the gold forum. Ever since the day I started reading there 2+ years counting, the same junk regurgitated on a daily basis. It is always the chief suspect Feds. If price rally then it is about time. If it falls then it was deliberately pushed down. But then look, the tonnage of physical being accumulated does not reflect paper gold price. The leverage of the futures contract is all I hear as one of the reason. This goes on ever since, how could anyone see sensible investing with this kind of mindset?
Secondly, my trading does not involves being right! I will say it one more time for YOU, I don't care if I am right or wrong, just profitable. My holy grail objective is to be 100% wrong yet profitable. It won't make any sense to you unless you stop this dogmatic thinking. Hence I am not interested in your bet because personally this was my mug retail mindset, always wanting to be right rather than profitable. You will not understand but the question is if you are willing to explore. Sadly I suspect one cannot teach old dogs new tricks.
I don't have a lot of confidence in Trump's ability yet and in time he will demonstrate if his words can be converted to action. Again, I have no interest in trying to predict, it is a mugs game. I sense the tide changing for US economy with fresh impetus with a President who has the political capital for revolutionary aspirations for his people, not the same old Clinton/Obama BS. I only wanted Clinton to win for selfish reasons, not to toss the apple cart of where it is currently. However I was incorrect in expecting Trump victory collapse the market or plough the seed of destruction. It turned out surprising so I am embracing his tenure.
If you understand trend trading, then you will understand a thing or 2 about BIG opportunity. The trend at the start is the big opportunity but at the start you have to be in bottom picking mentality. There will be pockets of opportunity for your reference point and I don't know since I am only a humble trader not some oracle. You will do well looking after your flock of Lambs who will be sheeps with the buy and hold at all cost.
As in bets, I take it with the market participants not some life time buy hold investor. This is not how I trade because to repeat myself again, I am a blind Freddy who don't know where price will end up.
I'll ask you this question, how can you profit from TBR with such insignificant liquidity? How are you going to protect your gain or you know that the price can only go one way up? I had a look at your stock and no one would want to put serious cash knowing that they have to rapidly chase the price up in order to get decent fill and then pay HUGE slippage to get out. Maybe it wont matter since since you are not going to sell it anyway regardless of any condition.