You are really forcing me to continue this chit chat that I have...

You are really forcing me to continue this chit chat that I have been through many times with other goldbugs. If you invest because you think the monetary system is unsustainable and there is going to be an almighty GFC by a factor multiples event and Gold=money, that will just make you continue to prep daily. I free myself from such strangle hold to look at other opportunities. I have been through a few manias and each time it is always different.

Here is 3 charts to help you understand what I have written.

XAUUSD Wk


XAUUSD D


XAUUSD 4H


Which trend do you want me to refer to? Is there a one size fits all trend?
This will help you in understanding what you need to ask specifically from this statement of yours, "That's not really a satisfying answer."

I won't address the rest of your content because I don't want to have a debate like religion. Essentially it is a debate between short term and long term investing and we each have our views that appeals to us. It is a flawed argument to try to compare which is better. Which piece of string is longer?

Here is a good scenario to start the debate, assuming you bought gold at $680 at the height of the GFC in October 2008. That is a literally 8 year hold to date. In that time gold went to the height of 1900 then fell back to 1230 as of Friday. You may argue that your investment is still up and the mathematics don't lie. What about the loss from 1900 to 1230? Is is because of long term horizons that paper loss is immaterial? The logic that "If I have not sold, I have not made any loss" a good reason I read all the time in these forums? We could stretch it all the way back to the start of the bull run to 250$ if you like and you can then say I still made 5 instead of 7.6 baggers?

And here is where logic falls apart between LT V ST hold. If a trader who bought a speckie at 1C and rode it to 10C, is that better than buying NST at $1.00 and waiting for $10? Assuming both will play out, which one you reckon will have a quicker chance to realise the 10 bagger status?

Don't assume that I do things lightly without having been through personal experiences or going though a thought process I deem comfortable for my individual circumstances whether financial or psychological.

Here are a few examples in different sector. PDN, a market darling for MANY years, one of the few that came through to the production phase and organically grew their mine to a second in Botswana. You would be foolish to clear out as price headed to 10bucks. What could go wrong? Crude oil heading to stratosphere making green energy the energy of choice. I could spend the next 24hours writing all the perceived fundamentals there is out there in the opinionated world as well as numbers and stats. Where is PDN today? Badly run company or just victim of the U spot pric? Could they control Japanese idiocy of Fukushima? Could they control the panic Germans that just shut down their reactors immediately?

FMG, another market darling effective went from 50C to $130 in the old speak and came crashing back down to the new speak $1.60 with the 1-10 share split. Did those really LT holders at the start benefited from that bull run? Yes and no of course, what they lost in huge paper gain was tokenly compensated by some very low yields but they haven't sold yet so there is still a chance to wait for $13?

You want more example? Top dogs BHP, RIO, CBA, WOW etc had their good and bad days but you can argue with divvy, it wasn't so bad. You are probably right but the fact remains that a lot of paper loss were real loss. I don't look at paper loss as something I must "pay" to get an even higher cap gain. Do you know why that is? It is because I cannot predict the future, cannot predict any economic events, cannot predict any Black Swan catastrophic events. Basically I have a view of the future but I am entitle to change that view as circumstances changes. Is that too difficult to comprehend?

If you think your methodology is better than mine then that is your opinion. I most probably agree with you in hindsight but it doesn't alter my decision based on my analysis. But then again I may not agree depending upon circumstances in the future.


"If you don't understand what you are investing in to a reasonably high degree you shouldn't be investing at all. Trying to be an expert at everything and crossing sectors is also a big mistake for a retail investor IMO"
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Define your investing methodology? Loads of research and technical geological knowledge makes one an expert at a stock picker? Can you pick the sell off with the Trump victory? Experts like Schiff, Rickards who have written bookS on the subject of future peeking at the monetary systems and who could rattle on about Keynesian or Austrian school economics in their sleep got is so wrong on the side effects of QE. You prefer to believe them or the humble Paul Krugman who correctly said that QE is not inflationary let alone hyper-inflationary. I don't want to name names but head over to SDL and you'll see a very well research poster and I mean well research who knows IO and West Africa inside out on the fundamentals. Price is not an issue and it doesn't truly reflects the potential is what I have read his many responses over a decade. You can see the results of a decade all in hold!

If the top professors in Top universities around the world who are the leading experts, then you would think they are the masters of the universe and top hedge funds managers instead of preaching to wannabe Economic under graduates? The only experts I follow are those who can perform consistently but then again what do I know, I am only a humble ST trader right?

In conclusion, I will predict that NST will actually reverse and rally hard or could in fact gap up on Monday at the open and fire up all the short coverings and valued hunting bulls. by the end of trading, it would have wiped out Friday's losses and be up another 10% as the gold price does another Trump sugar hit 100bucks rally. And I will be left with egg on my face left out at the station running after that gravy train.

Good luck.