Ok, since you want a debate here I will furnish your request.
"Simple answer will do. Do you think the reversal trend since Dec 15 is broken and the US gold price will make a lower low (than its low of last December) in the next 5 years?"
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The trend will depend on what time frame you are referring to. On the daily, the trend is definitely up. My measurement is none scientific, market structure. Higher peak, higher Trough. If you are asking on the longer TF like a weekly chart then the trend is still down and reverting to that longer term mean. Some who practice trend line concepts will draw a line from the 1900 high and the post Brexit highs were at the top of that falling trend line. So it is a matter of perspective. This is a basic charting concept.
As to the second part of the question, only a fool will even attempt to answer it. Crikey 5 years into the future? I can't even predict what will happen on Monday opening though I have an idea. Prediction is not of one of my repertoire of techniques and I have no use for them. The belong to gurus like Schiff, Rickards, Polony and all the gurus out there looking after their subscribers.
"Can't give a comment, I know. I didn't expect that you could, you are a zero conviction investor."
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My conviction comes form capital gains, not wait until I am proven correct eventually if lucky. In addition it also involves protecting paper gains. So no I don't have the kind of conviction like yourself. I simply don't know where price is heading to in the future.
"I believe the chance of that happening is practically zero and I'll close my Hot Copper account if it does."
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Bravo! How you choose to open or close your account is immaterial to me. We each have our own objectives and horizons. You are not proving anything to me. Maybe you should ask the last batch of fallen angels MML, SLR, TRY, KCN just to name a few how their long term holders are feeling right now? Maybe they have many more years to wait but can their cash flow wait that long?
"If you buy another gold stock it only proves you are a closet long who gambles on flies crawling up and down the walls. If it is your opinion that gold is dead just stop commenting on it and concentrate on something that is worthwhile following. As I said anyone who is convinced that the trend is broken and the down trend from 2012 is continuing would be stupid to be buying anything but the very best gold stocks."
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Firstly I never said gold is dead. What gave you that idea? Just because I am commenting that there is a bearish move in gold, it is dead? Crikey talking about paranoia, it doesn't really bother me what you think. I think the problem lies with your own current psychology. You need to go to the gym and work out all those frustration.
ROFL, the last sentence is kinda stupid in itself. Gold can only go up but if it gets a sell off than it is unreal or doesn't matter? Were you averaging up all the way to 1900 and kept averaging down consistently?
" it is more or less impossible to build any sizeable stake in a successful company if you totally exit the market."
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Would you call BB an idiot for selling down his shares? Or the the seed partner who sold down the lot? Ok so you made a sizeable stake in TBR, how are you going to crystalise those gains if gold should do a massive dump? Throw a 100K market order and the SP will go nuts in both direction depending if you buy or sell. Why would anyone get stuck in such a predicament? Go figure.
"Let us know when you buy into NST again so we can see the real cut of your jib (ie when you come out of the closet and admit you are a long and a goldbug to boot)."
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Gold is a commodity to me not gold=money. You may belief it is and that is your prerogative. But don't try and tell me that you know where price will go to on Monday let alone 5 years time. You are seriously embarrassing even Martis the famous goldbug. If I choose to get into NST again I do it for my own reasons not what your or anyone preaching the gold gospel to me. It wasn't so long ago that you were seriously questioning the FA of NST and those posts were even nastier than anyone I have made. Did you see me calling you any childish names? I didn't need to bcoz hotcopperites don't move market .
And lastly you have a 20 year hold so if you cannot handle the current gold sell off then maybe invest some time dissecting your own psychology. You are sounding like an investor with some brown slid marks!
NST Price at posting:
$4.15 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
