fundamental analysis: 5 bagger, page-10

Your numbers are interesting. I'd wuestion the ability for Celtic to convert at 2c. I supsect it will woould be less. It's 80% of vwap and conversion is May 2013. Can we be above 2c by then?

I'd also question 8x PE. The offtake agreement is for 10years. The 24th Dec ann shows 7years of ore at Peco, but no JORC.

Transport costs alone will be around $100/dmtu.

And even if we take your numbers as possible they are years off. The first 3months of 2012 are 0. Then only 2,500t/month until the end of year. Ramping up to 10,000t by December 2013. And they have a history of disappointing.

10,000t/month is only 120,000t/year and you are waiting for 2014 for that. Using 360,000t is optimistic. Their is also a wet season that means zero production.

The main issue will be the grades. Most the trenching is between 38-42%. The price of 42% Mn is just over $4, but the 50% Mn is around $5.30, it's a big difference.

If they can supply 360,000t/year @48% Mn and control costs then sp will be much higher. We are about 12months away from derisking to that level.