Full Year Update due August 10th and other ramblings

Hi All

Coffey are due to announce full year results on the 10th of August.  The guidance from last financial update is as follows:
The company’s underlying EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $18-$20 million for the full year. Following restructuring costs and non-cash goodwill impairments, the company expects to report a net loss after tax of $16-18 million for FY2015.
As a result, a final dividend will not be paid for FY2015.

Does anyone believe they will report better than expected earnings?

Believe the management team have a lot riding on increasing EPS by 2016 ($'hundreds of thousands of incentive bonuses are at stake).  This year has seen them write off a number of items in preparation for next financial year.  Every skeleton in the closet needs to be wiped off the books to minimise risk of not receiving incentive payments. Note: I don't believe management are as shallow as to only focus on this, however it will be in their sights as a benchmark of performance for shareholders and themselves.

The benchmarks are as follows:
EPS Target - $0.0527 and $0.081 per share.
Section 5.4.3 in Coffey's 2014 Financial Report, Remuneration Report Section - Performance Requirements states that one of the Long Term Reward (LTR) vesting requirements is as follows:

The vesting of this tranche of shares will be dependent on the EPS growth performance. The shares in this tranche will start to
vest on a pro-rata basis if EPS compound annual growth exceeds 30% over the period, and fully vest at 50% compound annual​

EPS growth. Shares will vest on a pro-rata basis for compound annual EPS growth between 30% and 50%.

The above is based on underlying EPS of $0.024.  For me, combined with the above, this would mean the EPS target for next financial year will be $0.0527 and $0.081 per share.

Total Shareholder Return Performance - Target share price to exceed between $0.20 and $0.22
Another condition is the Total Shareholder Return (TSR) performance needs to be greater than 15% above the S&P 300 Accumulation Index (ASX Code: XKO) from June 2013.  The XKO has increased roughly 15% over this period, COF has pretty much stayed the same as it was $0.15 at the time.
So management will be looking for a price target above $0.20, assuming the XKO doesn't go up anymore in the next year.

What are others thoughts out there?

Best of Luck
Lost