Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

CDA

0.95%

$15.65 codan limited

Full year results, page-12

First 12 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
billyen

6,110 Posts.

1453

27/12/15

19:54

Post #: 16689627
Share

Originally posted by billyen ↑

I saw some positive news which MAYBE might account for some of the recent uptick.

I buy Martin's Roth's TOP STOCK every year. To get new ideas but, I also like re-meet the companies and see what they are up to. I've found a few winners over the years which have paid off 1000 fold on my $30 investment.
You mostly see the upward movement in small to mid cap stocks. Which Codan now is.

Well, there was Codan!! (one of the top ASX stocks out of 1000's)

Mr.Roth has stringent criteria and that weeds out a lot of the crap stocks. It's a good reminder to me and the rest of the market that Codan is a solid company that's growing.

(You'd think and hope Codan's management team would be out there meeting more brokers and fund managers? They aren't!!!)

I've seen a few private equity deals go by recently and I think they are out there looking for value. I didn't buy Codan as a value play (or take-over target) but, I think we are now ONLY 2 months away (time flies!) from 1st half numbers and the NPAT should continue in the 20-30%+ range which will give this stock a massive boost. Who knows who's looking at the company.

You simply can't have companies growing at 20-30%+ and multiplies of 10-12 for long. The market will figure it out. No matter how hard the Board and management try and hide the companies success.

The current PE is around 10.

(It's import to remember the Codan's management doesn't give guidance. Too chicken. So the do it in a way to protect themselves but, it helps us. They list the brokers estimates. By law...THEY MUST announce to the market if there is a 10% change from "those" brokers estimates. It's the end of dec and the company basically knows the last 6 months results. So the numbers are just about a lock.)

I believe they'll come out with around 4 cents in Feb.
That will give them a trailing 12 month EPS of around 7.5 cent.

More so...if that's the number, it confirms growth...to even the biggest non-believers. The company should have a PE of 20-30.

You also have to consider they'll pay down even more debt and bump the dividend half a cent. Maybe more, if they aren't going to buy back stock.

So...simple math.

In February the stock will trade at
$0.75 cents at a PE of 10
$1.12 cents at a PE of 15
$1.50 cents at a PE of 20
$1.87 cents at a PE of 25
$2.25 cents at a PE of 30

Remember...the stock had a PE of 20+ for most of last year with higher debt and questions about the profit growth from the turnaround. Even at $1.50 it's STILL trading at a discount to it's growth.

Value, growth..dart board. No matter how you look at this...the stock is going up to $1.50 at some point in the next 3-12 months. Maybe sooner.

In 2 years...if the company grows at the same pace, it's EPS will be 20 cent! A PE of ONLY 15 gives this a $3 share price. You only get gifts like this, so often in life.

Expand

Correction...The last line should be...
In 2 years...if the company grows at the same pace, it's EPS will be 14 cent! A PE of ONLY 15 gives this a $2 share price. You only get gifts like this, so often in life.

CDA Price at posting: 72.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

MIN

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

RSG

Resolute shares bounce back as second payment made to Mali government to secure workers' release

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Bold moves in NZ, caution in Australia

WC8

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

ADD

Parkes Au-Cu project to 'transform' Adavale Resources with key targets

History-making uranium sample grades and an imminent drill run. Infini Resources is poised to transform in 2025

ACW

This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

Ice-cold winner: Cryopreserver Vitrafy escapes November's IPO struggles to end debut week higher

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 48, 2024

Week 48 Wrap: ASX flirts with 8,500pts; APRA declines mortgage loan easing; Trump's Bessent tied to Dem donor

There are more pages in this discussion • 18 more messages in this thread...

First 12 Last

Add CDA (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $15.65		Change -0.150(0.95%)		Mkt cap ! $2.785B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$15.92	$15.92	$15.55	$2.415M	154.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	813	$15.61

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$15.66	1112	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	279	3.170
2	2173	3.160
2	2646	3.150
3	5510	3.140
1	25000	3.130

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.190	3000	1
3.210	2102	2
3.220	1050	1
3.230	1050	1
3.240	10092	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 29/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

CDA (ASX) Chart

Full year results, page-12

Top Stories

MinRes's Ellison knows he screwed up – for that reason, hunt for new Chair to be sped up

Resolute shares bounce back as second payment made to Mali government to secure workers' release

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: Bold moves in NZ, caution in Australia

Pan Asia rebranding to 'clear confusion' after bagging $35M for Chile projects

Parkes Au-Cu project to 'transform' Adavale Resources with key targets

History-making uranium sample grades and an imminent drill run. Infini Resources is poised to transform in 2025

This biotech stock raised $11M in a risk-off environment. Its Alzheimer's drug could change the game

Ice-cold winner: Cryopreserver Vitrafy escapes November's IPO struggles to end debut week higher

HotCopper Highlights: Your most watched stocks for Week 48, 2024

Week 48 Wrap: ASX flirts with 8,500pts; APRA declines mortgage loan easing; Trump's Bessent tied to Dem donor

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)