from shaws morning notes, page-28

We have had eight trading days including the announcement day.

During that time a little over 19.1mil shares have traded.

That represents 5.5% of the total shares on issue.

Then again, the Top20 shareholders hold a little over 65% of the stock, and if you consider that Tightly Held, then there is 35% of free float.

35% of the Share's on Issue is around 121mil, so during the last eight trading days 15.8% of the free float has been traded.


In reply to lionel's points....

" - firstly, they say that IVA's comment about not deciding how they will vote until they see the full size and timing of the proposed capital distribution "may imply that not all of the proposed $100m return to shareholders may be paid in one tranche...". Why does this imply it won't get paid in one tranche? I don't read that into it at all."

I have just read the Shaw's report again, a few things come to mind, but only guessing.
Firstly, the way it is written says to me that Shaws are just speculating on any outcome (thinking out loud).
Secondly (I need some help here), after speaking to MA & perhaps Peter Reeve from IVA, are they speculating that Exco will not have enough franking credits for the whole $100mil to be fully franked in one go, and may need two tranche's to fully frank the special dividend (I'm no Tax expert, so I dont really know exactly how this works).
Another thought was that Peter Reeve could have just put that thought into someone at Shaws mind (if they actually spoke directly to him), guessing it might make it into a report, placing doubt into shareholders minds & perhaps making a takeover offer more attractive at a lower price.

All just guess's though.


"- secondly, they assert that EXS had to choose between selling CCP to Xstrata and merging all of the Qld Cu/Au tenements into IVA. But IVA said in their statement that they had proposed acquiring direct interests in some of the exploration tenements. My point here is that IVA should be just as interested in EXS's assets now as they were prior to the CCP sale. Or am I missing something here?"

This point just seems like Shaw's are speculating (which they qualify by saying they dont know if this was ever discussed).
In IVA's announcement they said their proposal was for a three way deal with Xstrata, IVA & Exco, which is not what Shaw's are saying, unless they know more than we have been told, which is also entirely possible.

"Have spoken to a couple of prop trader contacts of mine about EXS. Whilst they acknowledge the value proposition, they have been more focused on "risk-off" generally in the last couple of days. Sentiment will change though and if that coincides with some fresh detail, then the ingredients for a run are there..."

Yes, people I have spoken to are de-risking portfolio's and began doing so last Friday, moving to around 50%'ish cash.

Finally, some charting stuff.

Firstly here is a comparison chart Exco vs XJO & XMM.

EXS vs XJO & XMM


From a VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) point of view, strength in a chart is seen, when buying on higher than average volume, is able to be seen on the chart (the reverse is true on weakness in a chart).

You also need to have confirmation of strength (or weakness) in the following bars, as one strong bar amongst many weak bars will only lead you astray (or vice versa).

Looking at what has happened in the background of the chart will put the current price action in context.

Exco currently have weakness (selling or supply) in the recent background of the chart, so a number of strong bars will be needed to change that background weakness to strength.

Yesterdays bar showed the first signs of strength since the announcement, as you can see the SP opened at 60.5cps and was sold down to 58cps before it was bought up to close at 61cps, on slightly higher than average volume.

Remember that the smart money buy on down bars (close to close) and sell on up bars.

Here is the Exco chart with a run through of all the bars since the announcement,

Exco VSA

cheers