from buffet - a reminder

Hi all

I don't hold, hold meo but thinking of changing to mog or cue. Here are some clacs from bffet earlier on. Buffet hits the mark more often than not:

This is a copy of my recent post on Short term trading about MOG, which may be of interest to CUE shareholders given their involvement in the Artemis Prospect.
MEO Presentation, Sydney 15th Sept 2009
Artemis Prospect
~12 Tcf Mean
Un-risked: $3.65 Risked: $1.17 per share.
Assumptions
Recovery Prospective
Resource
Factor: 60%
Equity interest: 20% after farm]out
Unit Value: US$0.50/mcf, FX: A$0.80/US$
Geological Chance of Success: 32%
Issued shares 417.3
Treasury stock 10.1
Unlisted Options 13.4
Total: 440.8 m fully diluted
My Calculations:
Risked $1.17 x 440.8m = $515.736m to MEO
MOG 15% & no cost on first well = $386.77m likewise CUE.
No. of MOG Shares fully diluted about 291m (refer Dec Qtr)
Valuation per MOG share = $1.32
No. of CUE shares fully diluted about 699.35m (refer Dec. Qtr)
Valuation per CUE share = 55.3 cents
While we have to recognize this value is derived from the assumptions above and as we can see there has been a change in the exchange rate, it does give us some guide to the value of Artemis to MEO, MOG & CUE.
Note this valuation is only considering the Artemis Prospect & ignores all other company assets. Please do your own calculations to ensure I have made no errors in calculation.
The right farm out partner could see all 3 perform after the announcement in the short term. MOG has a gap in its chart that probably will be filled while CUE has filled a recent gap. May be prop sellers in both MOG (19 cents majority of sell orders created today between 10.10-10.19 today, but could be traders as well) & CUE (25 cents, big order for 763,200 created 7.56am today but could also be an overseas selling order) who could be trying to accumulate stock.
A short term spike in these stocks could give traders the opportunity to gain shares for free out of trading a short term spike in these stocks on the back of MEO announcement.
Regards
Buffett
PS Whilst CUE & MOG both have 15% interests I prefer MOG for the leverage offered although it will probably have to raise funds soon. Strangely MEO has sat in a trading halt while the other 2 stocks traded.

PGamble