Originally posted by Goldbull22
In my opinion a bid wouldn't come until after the BFS is released as with a director on the board the optics wouldn't look good to the regulators.
I expect a move to around the mid 30s before and after the BFS comes out, I would then expect an industry standard 40% increase on VWAP for the initial bid so likely high 40s to low 50s..
All my opinion and pure speculation, the synergies make sense and even at a 250 million dollar spend NST would add circa 10% to annual production and add another asset with 10 years + mine life...
A matter of time in my opinion as it was with EVN and Phoenix gold
I agree BFS
@Goldbull22 but I still expect that NST have been working on the stock.
The last sig holding from NST showed a move from 19.78% to 22.74 all up an increase in share numbers of 25.7m, but almost all was as a result of the placement, still good support/intent. This month has been different market/vol wise, we are are already a high 30m + traded on market for Feb.
For NST to get to the next ASX threshold (25%) it is only $5.6m, not a great deal when you consider the trades so far this month. Have they been acquiring? my bet would be yes and I guess depending upon how successful they have been we could see a new sig change soon.
I suspect it will then be in the hands of specialist advisors to structure/price a formal bid, importantly when is the optimum time for NST. But as you say BFS may be seen as the minimum info to be in the public domain. The 25% if they sit there is powerful enough, in that a quick jump to 30% with a bid would be seen as a strong start. Given what appears a close working relationship between companies I would expect that when it all gets underway, it would be by that very 25% threshold marker, they will not object to their own scheme of arrangement of course.
"The majority of friendly deals are effected via ascheme of arrangement or trust scheme, largelybecause of their ‘all-or-nothing’ outcomes*.
Anyway it is all very interesting for holders, a move towards $200m MC is not going to surprise markets IMHO, mind you a big move could force hands.
Cheers
Phil.
Good luck to holders, and for those who did hold out in the .10's, well done, fear was being thrown around, as with all lows, so give yourself a pat.
*Allens.com.au
