The end of next week should give some direction as to where...

The end of next week should give some direction as to where Billabong will go over the next short while as the Half Year results are due Friday 26th.

You’d have to think that the share-price may have been overly punished after dropping from a high of $3.50 back in mid-November to $1.50 now,… down well over 50%.

Yes there was a warning of lower earnings from the first 4 months of trading (down some $2.5m). But put this against $42m in first half earnings the prior year, and percentage wise this is only 5-6%.
Yes the $2.5m may have grown, but it may also have stabilized or even been recovered in the last 2 months from potential strong Australian Christmas Trading. And yes a $2.5 million drop in earnings (or more) does put a dent in potential full year net profit (if comparing it to the $4m they made in 14/15), but if they have a better second half this year and some of their cost savings come in to play Billabong could deliver a surprising full year result later in the year.

Billabong are looking at delivering some $30 million in savings in global sourcing and logistics, which will likely take several years to fully realize but they also stated we would begin to see initial benefits in FY15-16, ... so I'm hoping we're see the start of these coming through in the second half of the year leading to a stronger result.

Seb