Hi folks
An update on my 12h trade diary. The EJ trade in profit atm and just hit my take profit level, so happy with that, but 12 hours to go till I close the trade and as always anything can happen.
At the close of the 9am 12h bar, I have the following setups for the next 12 hours:
Thanks Jarado for the comment - as always hopefully this trade will be a winner. But I want to urge caution to anyone jumping on any of these trade setups. They are not setups where I expect any individual setup to produce a profitable outcome. This EJ trade could well end up hitting the stoploss by tomorrow morning before I close it out - I have no idea what will happen and I don't want to give the impression that I am forecasting what will happen. It is important to appreciate that these setups if triggered have shown in back-testing they have a strike rate of 53-54% (so 46-47% are losers) and on average are profitable if I follow the rules of my trade plan (the back-testing is done on the specifics of the trade plan). Even so, the historical back-test performance is no guarantee that those statistics will be extrapolated into the future for any length of time. The approach is designed so that I mechanically bet on every setup that arises - most will not get triggered, but those that do some will win and some will lose. But I don't cherry pick the setups I bet on each and every one the same way an EA would do.
The reason I am sharing my trade diary is more about showing the process of following a system and the results that can be achieved, because I believe this is one approach to sustained profitability. To some degree it is also an exercise for me in following that process, i.e. adherence too execution discipline, and a way for me to hold myself accountable to that discipline (and a means for me to contribute to an open disclosure forum, amongst others), so a learning & development exercise for me (since I still have my FX L-plates on...).
And hopefully, my material will be of interest to some along the way.
Cheers, Sharks
PS: A demonstration of the mechanical nature of my approach is that I now have a sell setup on the EJ even while I have a long position open. My pending short order is entered and whichever way it goes, it goes.
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