This is a long post so I apologize but to clarify further on the mid-terms..And this is purley my opinion only, please don't take it too seriously. I don’t normally talk about my bold opinions because I can often be wrong and don’t like giving false information to others but thought it could provide some entertainment while you’re drinkingy our morning coffee or on the can..
Political uncertainty is at an all-time high according to research done by Goldman Sachs. People have lost a lot of money this year due to unforeseen fluctuations and bearish moves in the stock market so traders have become more inclined to adopt a conservative approach (unlike Brexit).
Americans are scared. So much has happened for them this year in terms of politics and economics – especially the trade disputes and Russia implications. No one really knows what the outcome will be - though there's plenty of speculators.. This is why I don't think we're going to see the wild reaction everyone is anticipating from the mid-terms.
I think we'll see some fluctuations in the market for sure as we always do,but I'll be surprised if we see anything too wild. Unless, of course, the vote changes everything as people are predicting could happen.. then we could see some really interesting things happen to the US dollar. If we get these wild swings Rick will be having afield day on the 5min charts $$$
I'm sceptical as I think Republicans will hold control - at the end of the day I also don't think any result from these mid-terms will have an impact on the topic of China-US trade – these trade disputes won’t be resolved anytime soon.
So, there’s pretty much only three outcomes;
1. Democrats win lower house, Republicans retain senate – this is the one most are expecting according to a poll (but poll's can be wrong). It means that Democrats can block and new regulations, but they can’t control his nominations as that’s a decision made by the senate.
2. Republicans retain both house and senate – this is my prediction. If this happens, I believe the financial markets will see some little movement but not enough to really get us excited. It will be more of a “meh, ok” reaction.
3. Democrats win. Unlikely, but it is possible and if they do.. we’ll see some real action in the markets.
Bottom line; if republicans win – positive for USD, opposite if Democrats win.
As you all know by now, I don’t trade the smaller time frames except for my news strategy so I will only be placing trades if we get these wild swings and my criteria is met.
Again, I could be completely wrong and markets could see some great volatility. If I am wrong, I welcome you all to laugh at me and this post ha! . For your info, here’s some levels of interest that I’ll be watching (this is a 1hr USD chart);
Does anyone have any other opinions? Always interested to hear / learn from others also as I'm not perfect!
