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fluro2au

955 Posts.

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04/05/18

13:05

Post #: 32886238
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Originally posted by sharks37 ↑

Spec, I don't know if this is a problem you have, but one problem I have found with identifying setups to trade is I often find from a visual scan of charts I see setups that look profitable, but when I then go and do some stats on them I find on average they are not. I think this problem is a visual bias where when you have an idea in your head your eye is drawn to the obvious occurrences of the setup. But when you define the setup and screen the chart for all occurrences of that setup you will find a lot of occurrences that fit your description but are either not as obvious as the ones you pick up visually (they may be buried in congestion zones) or they are actually losing occurrences - which typically I find that my eye is not drawn to (hence the term visual bias).

I came to this conclusion when I was using spreadsheets to do the stats on setups, but its even more obvious when using an EA.

Point being, a setup on average is never as profitable as you think it is, imo, when you take into account all the times it happens, not just the ones you see.

Cheers, Sharks

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