foregone conclusion

I think the approval of the Scheme is a foregone conclusion.
That's on the assumption that the hedge funds have purchased the MOS scrip with the intention of accepting AGL scrip as consideration.

I have tried to add up the current s/h.

AGL 105m 12.8%
Centaurus Capital 78.2m 9.51%
Deutsche Bank 124.8m 14.09%
UBS 61.6m 7.49%
New S/h 45m 5.23%
Total of above 414.6 49.12%
Total # shares on issue = 867m

Note: the 45m shares just issued to vendors of Taipan block- they will certainly accept Scheme, because the sale consideration of the shares to be issued to them were agreed when MOS sp was trading around 8c or so!!!

Given that around 50% of the shares listed above will vote in favour of the Scheme, and the fact that many s/h simply will not bother to vote, its a shoe-in that the Scheme will get the 75% of number of shares in favour of the resolution.

HOWEVER - to get over the line, the Scheme still needs the approval of 50% of the number of shareholders who bother to vote - so if enough small s/h vote against the Scheme, then it could just fail.
I doubt it though.

cheers