If my calculations are right, this represents an extra-ordinary market opportunity. I would have liked to have seen proof of sales and opex figures before investing, but the investment case was too strong for me.
***Based on company forecasts: Chromite- 95000t Zircon- 5000t Ilmenite- 27000t
Using figures of Chr- 500, Zircon 1650 and Ilmenite 150 (all conservative figures), you get:
Revenue: 60million
Company costs of: -3.5m payroll -4m for goods and services -8m mining and hauling (high estimate allowing for cost blowout) = 15.5m opex
Even allowing for 100% opex blowout (which is pretty unlikely), you still get an operating cashflow of 30m, and NPAT of ~20million AUD using 30% corporate tax.
Using a 10% RR gives an EV of some 200million. With cash of ?10million- a valuation of 0.40.
The upside is: - no operating cost blowouts - higher mineral sands prices
and looking into the future: - increased production - ferrochrome production
I have loaded up already, and will heavily load up more as soon as I have proof that these are the numbers we will be looking at.
IDM Price at posting:
27.8¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held