Well that was a muted response. I was hoping to fire up some...

Well that was a muted response. I was hoping to fire up some debate and get some feedback. Perhaps I should have just put my forecast estimates out there in the first place! So here we go...

As a recap; The Production Statistics Dec 2011 for Smokey Hills were:
Tonnes Underground Production 76,345
Tonnes Milled 70,359
Head Grade 3.59
Recovery 77.12%
4E PGM oz 6,259
Cash Costs US$ 925

So based the figures supplied by the company on Mar 26 and estimating the rest my March 2012 forecast looks like:
Tonnes Underground Production 104,992
Tonnes Milled 103,447 (up ~47% on dec quarter)
Head Grade 3.9
Recovery 80.50%
4E PGM oz 10,100 (up ~61% on dec quarter)
Cash Costs US$ ~921 (wild guess)

Then looking into my crystal ball I currently have a June 2012 forecast of:
Tonnes Underground Production 164,580
Tonnes Milled 181,480 (up ~75% on mar quarter)
Head Grade 4.2
Recovery 81.50%
4E PGM oz 19,320 (up ~91% on mar quarter)
Cash Costs US$ ~811 (again wild guess)

The percentage gains q on q are quite an eye opener - if my predictions come true that is. I'm fairly happy with the March figures (and could prove a little conservative?), while the June figures are based conservatively on the guidance provided by management and their targets for the calendar year production total of 70,000 4E PGM oz. I plan to update these once the March quarter results are announced.

So what do people here think? Are these forecasts too optimistic or too pessimistic? Is there any other additional information anyone care to add?

[At this stage I must also add that I will be going overseas at the end of April for a period of 7 weeks holiday and don't at this stage plan to be posting on HC during this time - which will depend on wi-fi access. So I wont be able to update my June figures any time soon].

Hope this information is useful to holders. Please make sure you DYOR. Feedback welcome.

Thanks also to Hotfire who has provided some figure estimates in the past, which I have used refine my predicted numbers.

Cheers

Gus