for those interested ...

Warm greetings to all ...
: )

Just a short note to draw attentions to this morning's announcement from TRO, very little not to like about this junior in the current & approaching Zn environment despite her recent appreciations ...
Would refer those interested to spend time on the TRO thread, (2nd November), specifically localise perusings to Stolwyk's contributions which contain thorough company/asset(s)/value overviews/assumptions, (with thanks).

On structural Zn fundamentals, many people are aware of the approaching Zn squeeze & the rate of depletion of stockpiles indicative of dynamic price pressures to assist demand destruction to the peripheral consumers occurring in the near future barring strategic Chinese interventions ...
Assuming basic time-series stockpile depletion at a constant rate, we may, come early to mid January, be facing Zn stockpiles @ or < 45kt reflecting a spot price closer to US$2.5-2.75 than not, (nb lay speculative assumption).

False economics of risk rationalisations means that in this environment by focussing on the junior end for pop yields of 30-40% with attached risks of 25-40%, we ignore the same yields, greater liquidity present on the macro (current producers benefitting) with sliding/trailing (managed) risks at a substantially less 10-15%, (eg-ZXF,PEM,etc), however we will still always look & play!
: )
The Zn supply shortfall window arguably remains open till 3rd quarter 08 & beyond, (www.yukonzinc.com/documents/ZMU_10-15-06_World_Production.pdf), insulating the US$4,000-4,500t economics of newly delineated/re-rationalised orebodies IF they can produce within that window.
Many juniors obviously become highly speculatively attractive in that paradigm (+US$5,500tZn), but as far as I can see, TRO sits very high with management being an acknowledged unknown risk variable for me personally.

If all the boxes remain structurally ticked, personal targets would be close to $2.74 by mid January preceding prefeasability results & would not be surprised with a 'hyper-dynamic' market response upon upper-parameter pre-feasability (late Feb07)conclusion with rally values in excess of $4 per ofp.

Reviewing the top twenty will reveal an extremely tight register (+76%) resulting in very light trading volumes which present obvious 'craypot' liquidity concerns/risks therefore due diligence & patient commitment is necessary ~ this alternatively though is the very factor in light of her high asset values that may induce TRO into a 'hyper-dynamic' paradigm.

Technically ~ today's close was a breach of the compressing flag looking now for an expected confirmation close of $1.24 within 3 days before new symmetry opens the door to price targets of $1.44, $1.72, $2.12 & $2.74 over the next 6-8 weeks.

This is merely a heads up for those interested to draw their own conclusions to what I see as one of the more attractive Zn juniors relative to current environmental (sector) capitalisation values, certainly not without risk & is subject to manipulation because of her liquidity or lack there-of but fundamentally quite outstanding if management can seriously convince the market to believe that they can produce within the desired window ...

Anyway, back to the shadows I go! ~ warm regards to all & best wishes in any & all positions always ...
: )



Nb. ~ Position & sentiment covered in the above.