Some interesting points your raise, and I agree eSIM does present both opportunities & threats to FRX.
eSIM at this point is largely marketing hype brought about by an iPhone. Samsung's latest flagship doesn't even have one! The real application (and opportunity for growth for MNO's) for eSIM is in the booming IoT space.
MNO's largely maintain their customers by locking them into contracts when they upgrade their handset, not because they find it difficult to switch SIMs. Most MNO's don't even lock handsets that are on a plan anymore.
In similar industries consumers can switch insurance, banking, mortgages and many other digital products quite easily, but most don't because they just can't be bothered.
I also disagree that they are likely to lose market share as they currently have a mere <$10m slice of the $51 billion global roaming market. That's a market penetration of 0.0000000002%.
That $51b represents ~6% of total global MNO revenue. I believe what keeps MNO's dragging their feet is that they don't want to disrupt their own revenue. MVNO's are playing an increasing role in the market and although they do compete with their suppliers in the marketplace, MVNO's do allow them to access customers in different segments with much lower cost.
A good example is that currently 50% of travellers are still 'silent roamers ' in that they turn off mobile roaming when overseas, or use WiFi hotspots or local SIMs when abroad.
As prices reduce, more of these roamers will awaken, and most of these are not quite ready for the $10 a day deals on offer by the MNO's. Budget MVNO's like FRX allow MNO's to drive revenue that was otherwise lost onto their books without cannibalising their existing roaming revenue.
The real competition FRX faces is not from eSIM, but from the 'Roam like Home' offers that have come about largely as a response to the new EU regulations. That said, Brexit may mean the UK back out of the EU arrangement.
I agree with Mal that FRX came very close to failing, but I believe they are substantially de-risked now. Of course, they will have to keep innovating and keep operations lean to ensure they can continue to grow.
I see their moat as not so much being around technology be it (microchip or eSIM). It's the 580+ MNO relationships they have and their network of 100's of distribution partners across the globe. These are things that take time to build and aren't easy to replicate.
