Yes, on this rare occasion I agree you are correct, The SP has done nothing since the MAS deal, and yes you are right ultimately the market does decide. We all just hope that we know better so that we can make a buck when the market eventually gets it right.
AppAnnie shows a clear increase in download rankings since the promotion began in January for Malaysia, so it doesn't take Eintstein to conclude that it already having an impact in new customer acquisition. Let's see how it continues.
It is possible the Mr. Market is concerned that distributing "upto" 6 million SIMs/microchips in 2019 might put a strain on short term cash flow? I personally think Mr. Market couldn't care less about FRX so that is unlikely, and I also believe it is a stretch to suggest they will actually give out anywhere near that number. I'm sure many frequent flyers will travel multiple times with MAS and many others will say no thanks,. I believe UNL have reported uptake of their SIMs to partners of around 10% (but this is via a digital offer method, similar to the original FRX deal with Scoot).
They will be handing them out periodically throughout the year, so it should be a staggered spend. I believe it costs $0.10 to manufacture a SIM, so let's say all said and done it costs them $0.50 to distribute each one. So even if all 1.5m are distributed in a linear fashion, in Q1 CY2019 we are talking ~$750k. Presumably a % of these new customers will make a purchase soon after, and the beauty of FRX's model is that all $ are received in advance.
Revenue isn't recognised until the data is used or has expired, I'm not sure if this is what you are referring to as 'misguided' in their financial reports, but it's an AASB accounting guideline they must adhere to. Besides, for me, cash is king.
You seem to be taking a greater interest in FRX lately, I'd be interested to know what you think they will achieve on their upcoming 4c report?
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