I’ve picked five recent SIA transactions and summarised the offer and outcome of each. Sometimes there are multiple premiums are published using different metrics - in these cases I’ve gone with the most generous. Of course each case is different, but having some knowledge of what has transpired elsewhere can help inform the current proposal before shareholders.
(1) Aug 2016 - TAH offers a premium of 32% to buy ITQ in an all-cash deal. In Oct 2016 the deal is approved by 97% of shareholders present at the meeting and 99% of shareholder votes.
(2) Jan 2017 - Bidco offers a premium of 32% to buy DUE in a mixture of cash and dividends. In April this is approved by nearly 100% of shareholders
(3) Feb 2017 - Fairfax Financial (Canada) offers a premium of 48% to buy TWR in an all-cash deal. Subsequently Suncorp starts buying shares at a higher price and in June confirms a superior proposal in an all-cash offer of 77%. However this proposal is blocked by authorities in New Zealand due to competition concerns and is currently the subject of legal appeals.
(4) Feb 2017 - DWS offers a premium of 30% to buy SMX in a mixture of cash, dividends and scrip. Two weeks before shareholders are due to vote a superior bid is received by ASG Group offering an all-cash 41% premium. This is approved in Sept by 91% of shareholders present at the meeting and 99% of shareholder votes.
(5) Mar 2017 - Tremont Investments offers a premium of 44% to buy CXX in an all-cash deal. In June this is approved by 97% of shareholders present at the meeting and nearly 100% of shareholders by votes. However days later in July the bidder terminates the scheme due to a change of law in a foreign country and the acquisition doesn’t go ahead.
What do we learn from this?
(1) A ~30% premium seems to be a baseline for these transactions
(2) Two of the five deals were done at a ~30% premium for shareholders and one went through at a ~40% premium.
(3) Two of the five deals ultimately didn’t go through (assuming the TWR appeal is unsuccessful). Co-incidence or not these were the higher premium deals.
(4) A rival bid may not materialise until closer to the vote as the SMX case illustrates.
MLA Price at posting:
8.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
