I agree with most of your post MarsC. Regarding capital...

I agree with most of your post MarsC. Regarding capital raisings, yes I agree, I probably wasn't clear, where I feel an investor can benefit, is where more recent capital raisings were used to pay down debt (i.e. not for expansion or to fund exploration). In these turnaround scenarios I feel that the last capital raising which deleverages the balance sheet to a manageable level, is one area that cigar butt investors can look at for potential turning points of (usually, but not always, weak) businesses. In "What works on Wall Street" they demonstrated that companies that did equity capital raisings on average underperformed the market over the next 12 months. I think that is generally true, but would be skewed by exploration companies with no revenues that consistently raise capital, then have to return to the market later at a lower price. Where capital raisings raise my interest is when it deleverages a previously overleveraged business to a manageable level. The 2010 capital raising I think was used to pay down debt. Since then, asset sales I believe have been the major method of reducing debt.

Agreed I don't think anyone would argue that this is a good business. But, as you've honed in on, is it a mediocre business at a bargain price?

The whole commodities cycle, and investment in capex, I won't argue. It could fall further as you've suggested, and it might (I don't know). A turnaround in the commodities cycle would provide massive upside to bol. I think the longer the downturn runs for, the more likely that a strong turnaround will occur. I'll try to keep my forecasts out of the equation though for discussion purposes due to the speculative element involved.