One thing I tried to be clear about is that my 1/3rd odds of...

One thing I tried to be clear about is that my 1/3rd odds of losing my money, is not something I've "worked out", it's a guess. What I'm hoping is that it's an overly pessimistic guess. This whole opportunity is one that I have very, very little certainty about (both in terms of the potential upside, and the likelihood of the downside eventuating).

With such little certainty, the only way I will venture my money, is if even a highly conservative evaluation indicates a profitable return. I am hoping my 1/3rd guess is highly conservative, as well as the magnitude and timeliness of the upside.

But, let's be clear, it's all guesswork.