AUL (ASX) Fair value market cap analysis?

Originally posted by Krum ↑

Hi Everyone,

Sometimes experienced mining executives are in charge of ASX Juniors and sometimes not. MCO was not. MNM was and then AUL was not. AUL now is again, I am and I know AULs people for a very long time.

The ASX releases you see from Tom are factual, they are dry, they do not ramp either way nor promote. I suspect those of you over ramping either way may be traders/brokers. Tom is bound by law to remain factual.

Now to the mine, it was the best goldmine in Australia under WMC in the 50s and 60s but at depth. All the other dykes and mines on the Walhalla to Woods Point were/are similar so the upside prospectivity for both AUL and CTL (A1) are good.

To get to the holy grail of cashflow needs time and money and commitment by management, employees and shareholder owners. You own MStar mine and infrastructure, RoD mine Wallaby Mine etc so 3 or more potential ore sources. Tom is working on them all calmly and carefully with little cash.

Ultimately I see Rod and Wallaby paying for access to the MStar deeps. I had to sell out to develop other business but watch and wait cash to re-enter. And the exploration potential for multiple more dyke mines is immense once tha cashflow allows but until then they can land bank it.

ASX junior miners (not explorers) are owned by 2 kinds of shareholders; long term mom and pops/sophisticateds and traders. Both are easily spotted. The LT holders like Vertigo and 30boz are considered and know all the history (not necessarily expert miners) and remain positive and measured but occasionally get drawn into fights. The traders need to trade so hold multiple stocks and trade them. They need volatility and may be tempted to ramp both ways. Their job requires volatility and volatility can be also an attitude thing that trickles into the forum.

My view is more a holder and a LT supporter because the fundamentals of the mine require that.

But everyone should be aware of competing drivers thus attitudes on these anonymous forums and maintain your own focus and calm.

MCO was founded and run by the father and son Gatling Lawyers and no matter the attitudes they did succeed in getting the site from bushfire raviged to the current state and it cost MCO shareholders $50mill which they lost. This happens to ASX junior miners - it’s a tough space but the rewards can be golden to use a pun.

I personally would like to see the still waiting MCO holders offered rights along with current AUL holders to rid AUL of any Magna type death spirals. Give the miners at the mine a chance over a full 12 months and fingers crossed the gold price stays high.

GLTA, Krum

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Excellent post Krum!!

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