extensions, page-2

Riv,

The longer it plays out the higher the likelihood that CPB's share price will move forward and the conversion appreciate. But I dont see it playing out that way. The AEC board met with the MD last week and the major sticking point from both parties are what figures to work the calculation.

Now CPB are saying FY10, AEC are saying the FY11 projected. While I understand CPB's views, consideration needs to given to the upturn in the market conditions and the strong argument from AEC that they've invested heavily for the long term and its now coming to fruition.

So where to from here?

I think that AEC will give a trading update, probably in about 4 weeks. This would give them a period of July 1 to around 20 Sept (nearly 25% of the year). They could even calculate it from a period earlier than this say May, giving them 6 months numbers and if the numbers are as strong as management are saying, the argument will finally be put to bed.

Now with a calculation.
If CPB changed it from 8.5 to say 7.5 on ($28.48) and the share price moving to $33, this would give a conversion of $4.40.

Is it worth CPB waiting for another month to see the figures and then offering shareholders 12% more? (7.5 - 8.5 conversion) maybe even throw in the divi for good measure.

This party is far from over.

Pep