There is a lot of potential here but they need to re-invest and diversify with a larger network of websites. For me, WTF paying such a high dividend is a real concern for growth, but they probably need to pay it at the moment to show stability.
You're right pricing across competitors is probably the most important thing. I only looked at a couple of examples, but Last Minute is still cheaper than Expedia - not by a lot though.
As a web designer myself I am looking at some of the technical aspects. In the online space it costs very little to experiment with different domain names, brand names and website styles. You can effectively roll the same functionality and price system into a "new website" design and attempt to soak up the search engine traffic within your own network. Allow a little price variation and you have a perfect monopoly, even if you don't advertise using all of the websites. The more ownership of top 10 results you have the better. I like Last Minute more than Wotif, but they need to update both a little, I find the text a bit small (and I'm in my 20's)!
I think they have the ability. The new "Packages" section of the Wotif website is really beautifully designed. I don't know how well it converts, as the packages and flights seem a bit hidden within the Wotif website and I don't think the brand is really known for these services. Meanwhile they haven't done much to update their breadwinner, accommodation.
With a portfolio of websites and movement in the right direction WTF should be operating at much higher P/E multiples. Look at the turn around of Carsales the last few days (~ +15%) and Webjet today (+25%). It is typical for "tech" companies with strong competitive advantages to trade at high multiples and if WTF can get their house in order it will turn around quickly. Looking at prior announcements, I don't think management should be saying that the double digit growth days are over. IMO that is probably the worst thing to could say. It fits in with what some others said that maybe the new CEO just wanted a little setback so he could be the hero.
I think it's a pretty safe bet even if they keep doing what they have been doing (giving back 99% of profits in their dividend). I suspect this is probably creative accounting and they are in fact developing some new digital products behind the scenes. However the lack of updates, change and growth has me wondering.
Hopefully WTF can re-invest in some new strategies or services or even just extend those services across a larger network. It all depends how seriously management are taking the recent drop and what changes they implement.
I have loaded up, but I was really questioning myself when I averaged down recently. Right now, there looks like a wall of sellers up to $2.75 but based on recent volume this can be broken soon and it could gap up considerably if $2.75 breaks or if we get the right announcement.
Good luck.
WTF Price at posting:
$2.71 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held